Total spending on advertising in this year’s midterm elections is on track to hit $11.6 billion, shattering the record set by the 2024 presidential election cycle, according to a new estimate by analytics firm AdImpact.
An expanding number of competitive Senate and gubernatorial contests, expensive ballot measures like California’s billionaire tax and surging fundraising by campaigns, parties and super PACs — including by newer industries like AI and online gambling — are contributing to the record forecast, AdImpact said in a report Thursday.
Texas has already offered a glimpse at how expensive the midterms will be: The primary there alone cost about $135 million, much of that due to a bruising Republican battle between Attorney General Ken Paxton and Senator John Cornyn. With no incumbent on the ballot this fall, spending for Texas’ Senate race is now expected to reach a total of $446 million. That will make it the most expensive in the cycle, the report says.
Tough Senate races in Ohio, North Carolina and Maine will only add to that. Overall, media buys in Senate contests are expected to reach $3.4 billion, with $2.9 billion of that spent on 10 races.
AdImpact’s spending estimates cover outlays on paid media, including broadcast television, cable, satellite, radio, digital ads and connected television. They don’t include other political spending, like costs from polling, travel, holding rallies, fundraising and getting out the vote.
With its ability to reach mass audiences, broadcast is projected to account for $5.6 billion, or nearly half, of the total. Connected television, which allows advertisers to reach narrowly defined audiences in large numbers, ranks second at $2.7 billion. Through June 1, AdImpact tracked $4 billion in spending, far ahead of the $2.7 billion spent at the same point in both 2024 and 2022.
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The spending comes with both parties seeing the November midterms as a near-existential showdown.
Democrats have been locked out of power in Washington, with the GOP running the White House and both chambers of Congress.
President Donald Trump, meanwhile, has warned that he’ll face investigations and impeachment efforts that could derail his agenda if he loses Congress. But his declining approval rating, over issues including the economy and war in Iran, is making it harder for Republicans to keep control.
Historically, the party in the White House loses House seats in the midterm elections. Mid-decade redistricting in Texas, California, Florida and other states has reduced the number of competitive House races, but the projected $2 billion total on House races would still be the highest in midterm history and top outlays in 2024 by $322 million.
The House Majority PAC, which backs Democrats, has already booked $192 million ahead of the November election, while its Republican counterpart, the Congressional Leadership Fund, has $144 million.
The Senate is a tougher climb for Democrats, though party leaders see a potential path to flipping four seats and winning the majority through states including North Carolina, Maine, Texas, Alaska and Ohio.
In Ohio, Republican Senator John Husted is facing Democrat Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat in 2024 in a race where overall spending reached $451 million, the most expensive that year, according to OpenSecrets.
Currently rated a toss-up by Cook Political Report, the special election was called to fill the unexpired term of Vice President JD Vance. The Senate Leadership Fund, which backs Republicans, has already booked $54 million in Ohio compared to $32 million for Democratic super PAC WinSenate.
California’s gubernatorial contest, in which billionaire Tom Steyer spent more than $200 million of his own money in an unsuccessful bid to make the November ballot, could top $350 million, surpassing the record set in Illinois’ 2022 governor’s race at $215 million.
A ballot initiative in California that proponents say would allow for a one-time, 5% tax on the holding of individuals and trusts whose net worth is $1 billion or more, could also cost a fortune. Billionaires including Google co-founder Sergey Brin, former Google CEO Eric Schmidt and Stripe co-founder Patrick Collison have already donated millions to block it.
A few races saw declines in projected spending as the difficult political environment for Republicans made it less likely they could challenge incumbent governors Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania and Kathy Hochul in New York.