Heating bills for American households that rely on oil to warm their homes are expected to be 21% higher than last winter, according to the US Energy Information Administration .
The forecast highlights the Trump administration’s mounting energy challenges. The midterm elections that will determine control of Congress are four weeks away, and the president’s Republican Party is expected to suffer losses, in part because of voter discontent over higher gasoline, electricity and other energy costs. The price of diesel — which is closely tied to heating oil — has surged as the US-Iran war and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries tighten supplies.
Heating oil prices across the US are projected to rise 30% in the winter compared to a year ago, though milder weather in the Northeast will offset some of the impact to household heating bills as homeowners will burn less fuel, according to EIA outlooks released Tuesday. About 3% of US households primarily rely on heating oil, with most in the Northeast, the agency said.
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In Maine, the state with the highest proportion of homes that use heating oil, fuel prices stood at $5.96 a gallon as of Sept. 28, according to the Maine Department of Energy Resources. That’s nearly 80% more than the year-earlier period.
The EIA also projects a Brent crude oil price of $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter, $14 a barrel higher than last month’s forecast. It sees retail diesel prices holding above $6 a gallon through October, before falling to $4.50 a gallon next year.
The agency also expects Middle East oil production and exports to gradually rise, with more transits through the Strait of Hormuz and as producers use alternative routes and other workarounds.