By Nia-Malika Henderson | Updated on Oct 05, 2026 at 12:30 PM
Iowa is ground zero for everything that ails the GOP in its battle to maintain its governing majority.
The Iran conflict, now in its eighth month, has caused record diesel prices, battering the state’s agriculture-based economy during harvest season.
President Donald Trump’s quixotic tariff policies, most recently against Canada, which is Iowa’s largest export trading partner , have struck a fresh blow to the state’s economy.
The callous Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act have forced clinic closures and service cutbacks at rural hospitals, with more impacts to healthcare access still to come.
And there are open Senate and governor’s races — something that hasn’t happened in Iowa in the same year since 1968 .
This confluence of Republican self-owns and open-seat serendipity has left Democrats understandably bullish on their chances this cycle in a state that has been reliably red at the state level for at least a decade.
“The national perception really is that Iowa is this red state, but Iowa is not as red as one might think. Certainly if you just look at the numbers of elected officials, it is,” said Donna Hoffman, a political science professor at the University of Northern Iowa. “But Iowa is very swingy in this sense. If we look back at 2018, the congressional delegation after that election included three Democrats, and they are bullish because there are competitive races really up and down the ticket.”
Although Trump won Iowa by 13 points in 2024, up from 8 in 2020, the state also voted for President Barack Obama twice by narrower margins. In August 2025, Democrats broke the GOP’s supermajority in the state Senate by flipping a seat . And a few weeks ago, the Cook Political Report moved the Senate race from “lean Republican” to “toss up” and the governor’s race to “lean Democrat.”
In that governor’s race, polls have shown Democrat Rob Sand, a state auditor, with a consistent lead over Republican Zach Lahn, a businessman. In the Senate contest, Democrat Josh Turek, a state legislator, is in a tight race with Representative Ashley Hinson, trading leads depending on the poll.
That Republicans are struggling is a sign of just how unpopular Trump has become — and how quickly his ratings have dropped.
In January 2026, Trump appeared in the state to kick off the midterm cycle and brag about his policies.
“Just after one year of President Trump, our economy is booming,” he said in Clive, a suburb of Des Moines . “Incomes are rising. Investment is soaring. Inflation has been defeated.”
A month later, Trump made the disastrous decision to start a misguided and poorly planned conflict with Iran. The ensuing rise in prices tanked his approval rating on the cost of living, the very issue that got him elected.
According to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, just 17% of US adults approve of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, and 65% blame his policies more than outside factors beyond his control.
It’s no wonder that Hinson, who has served three terms in Congress, ducked Vice President JD Vance’s campaign appearance last month. Hinson is also tacking to the center, appearing in campaign ads that tout the importance of bipartisanship. And she weakly attempted to break with Trump on Iran, saying “ the war needs to be brought to a successful and immediate end ” on X.
“Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran,” she wrote last month. “We need to use every option at our disposal to provide some relief from high prices.”
Turek, who represents a red part of western Iowa, shot back by pointing out Hinson’s record of support for Trump’s Iran conflict.
“[I]t’s easy to send a tweet but when you had the chance to vote to end this war, you chose not to,” he wrote . “You voted seven times to continue it, including just last week. It’s time to actually end the forever wars and put Iowa and Iowans first.”
Their first debate is scheduled for Oct. 7, with a second set for Oct. 13.
To be sure, there is reason for caution, if not outright skepticism about Democrats’ chances. The party’s brand is still toxic to many voters, particularly White rural voters, who have yet to abandon Trump; an AP poll recently found that 6 in 10 rural Republicans say Trump has improved the national economy.
But Democrats, benefitting from a “red undertow,” have managed to field a competitive slate of candidates, particularly Turek, who has a compelling personal story.
Trump, who announced a new steel plant he claims will open in 2030, is planning to visit the Hawkeye State again. Hinson attended Trump’s Oval Office announcement for the new plant, but will have to make some decisions about whether she will appear in the state with Trump, who has a 58% disapproval rating in Iowa, according to a Marist poll .
Surely, she’ll have a “scheduling conflict” so as not to harsh her newly found bipartisan vibe?
“If it is a wave election, waves can have an important impact in a state like Iowa, where just south of a third of voters are what we call no-party voters. They can be particularly important,” said Hoffman. “They vote at lower rates than partisans, but they can be activated — and once they are activated, they generally swing one way or the other.”
If Iowa does swing blue in November, Democrats will deserve some credit for picking the right candidates. But the bigger factor will be just how much Trump did to hamper his party.
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