Offshore US oil production is plummeting as Hurricane Isaias pushes toward a coastline dotted with refineries and chemical plants.
The storm intensified overnight as it fed on warm, deep waters in the Gulf of Mexico on a path toward the US coast, according to the US National Hurricane Center. Isaias’s wind speeds increased slightly on Friday to 110 miles (177 kilometers) per hour, the top end of a Category 2 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale.
More than 3 million people live in the projected path of Isaias. The storm was about 200 miles (322 kilometers) south of the coast as of 4 a.m. New York time, and is forecast to hit Alabama or the Florida Panhandle late Friday or early Saturday, US forecasters said.
Isaias could briefly become a major hurricane early Friday, although some weakening is expected thereafter, US forecasters said . The system will remain a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast later in the day, according to the NHC.
Isaias helped push US oil prices up as much as 5.6% on Thursday as companies evacuated crews from platforms and drillers sailed rigs out of the storm’s path. Roughly 63% of US Gulf of Mexico crude output has been shut in , while 500,000 barrels a day of refining capacity is threatened. Several ports are shutting ahead of the hurricane, crimping seaborne crude deliveries.
Three fuel-making facilities are in or near the projected path, including Chevron Corp.’s 356,000 barrel-a-day refinery in Pascagoula, Mississippi. Even small production losses could trigger sharp price increases, with US gasoline and diesel stockpiles already far below seasonal norms. Natural gas production in the Gulf has also fallen, with about 57% of regional output shut in.
Read More: Tracking the Latest Path of Category 2 Hurricane Isaias
Based on current forecasts, Isaias will likely become the first Atlantic hurricane to strike the US in two two years . The last was Milton, which inflicted billions in losses and left 12 people dead after ripping through central Florida in October 2024.
The storm is expected to broaden as it approaches the coast, exposing a wider area to damaging winds and flooding. Emergencies have been declared in more than 70 counties in Alabama, Florida and Mississippi, where officials have urged residents to stock up on drinking water and nonperishable food and review evacuation plans.
“I don’t ever second-guess Mother Nature,” Mississippi Emergency Management Agency Executive Director Stephen McCraney said in a statement posted to X.
McCraney said personnel were preparing for potential “spin-up tornadoes” and rising floodwaters after Isaias pushes ashore. Coastal communities may see as much as 7 feet (2.1 meters) of storm surge on top of high tide.
Strong gusts are expected to reach Birmingham, Alabama, and the Atlanta metro area as Isaias moves inland, said Tyler Roys, a senior meteorologist for AccuWeather. “This could lead to long-lasting power outages over a week in some places,” he said, adding that restoration may take longer in harder-to-reach rural communities.
Duke Energy’s Florida utility said workers are ready to respond to outages. “Our crews are prepared to restore power as soon as conditions allow,” said Todd Fountain, the utility’s storm director.
Isaias is expected to bring heavy rain across the Southeast through the weekend, with localized totals of up to 8 inches possible as far north as the Carolinas. Parts of Florida’s Big Bend region and Panhandle may get as much as 15 inches , raising the risk of flash, urban and river flooding.