Bets for who will take home the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize surged in the hours before the announcement on Polymarket, echoing similar events a year ago when a website hacking likely leaked the winner’s name.
Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of the late Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny, suddenly emerged as the frontrunner in betting on the Polymarket platform before those bets were proved wrong on Friday as the prize went to judge and human rights lawyer Navi Pillay.
Read More: Nobel Peace Prize Goes to International Jurist Navi Pillay ·
Navalnaya’s odds went as high as 65.5% at one point overnight with about $2 million in betting volume. The event overall had volume of just over $32 million. Pillay wasn’t among the favorites.
Last year, a leak of Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado’s name triggered an unusual betting surge on the Polymarket platform hours before she was unveiled as the award recipient. The Venezuelan opposition leader hadn’t previously been considered a favorite for the 2025 prize.
An investigation by the Norwegian Nobel Institute assisted by security authorities later concluded that an individual or a state actor may have illegally gained access to its website in a cyber breach.
Read More: Nobel Hacking Likely Leaked Peace Prize Winner Name, Probe Finds
Navalnaya, from exile, has carried on her husband’s campaign after his February 2024 death in an Arctic prison which his supporters and Western governments blamed on the authoritarian regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Arguably the most prestigious prize in global diplomacy, the Nobel Peace Prize has stirred more controversy. Last year, US President Donald Trump, who has long coveted the award, aggressively campaigned to obtain the award, in vain. Earlier this year, Machado gifted her medal to Trump, stunning Norway.
What to Know About the Nobel Peace Prize Trump Covets: Explainer
The Nobel prizes are annual awards for achievements in physics, chemistry, medicine, peace and literature. They were established in the will of Alfred Nobel , the Swedish inventor of dynamite who died in 1896.
All except the Peace Prize are awarded in Stockholm, and this year’s awards come with 12 million kronor ($1.2 million) of money.