President Donald Trump said in a social media post that the US would “not be attacking Iran” before November’s midterm elections, citing what he said were “productive discussions” with the Islamic Republic.
The president’s comments on Thursday amounted to an unusual blending of national security issues and domestic politics. His decision to lay off on new strikes comes despite Iran escalating attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran-backed militants in Yemen attacking energy facilities in Saudi Arabia and the president’s decision to move US bombers from a base in the UK because of possible Iran-linked threats.
The remarks follow recent reporting in the Atlantic that Trump was mulling plans to strike Iran before the midterm contests and that the White House had asked the Pentagon to prepare options. The New York Times separately reported Thursday that senior White House national security officials recently discussed plans that included an intense three-day campaign.
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Trump said in an interview with Time Magazine published earlier this month that ramped-up military strikes against Iran were “possible” following the elections.
Late last month, the Pentagon deployed an additional aircraft carrier and 10,000 sailors and Marines to the Persian Gulf, a US official previously told Bloomberg. That move bolsters the two aircraft carriers already in the region and gives American commanders more options if Trump chooses to launch new attacks on Iran, the official said.
Trump has suggested Iran was waiting to see how his Republican Party would do during the midterms.
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In September, he explicitly dismissed the relevance of the vote when it came to the Iran war.
“I gave absolutely no credence and will not give credence to the election when it comes to Iran,” Trump said. “It doesn’t even enter my mind.”
In his Thursday post, the president did not offer any details about the discussions he said were happening with Iran. Talks have remained deadlocked over a host of issues including control of the vital Strait of Hormuz. The president rejected an Iranian offer after holding discussions via mediators during United Nations meetings in September.
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Trump has repeatedly cited productive or ongoing diplomatic talks with Iran without any results. He’s also repeatedly threatened military escalation against Tehran, sometimes without ordering new attacks. Trump added on Thursday that a US naval blockade of Iranian exports would remain in place.
Yet fresh tanker attacks by Iran threaten to curtail a recent uptick in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz: UK Maritime Trade Operations reported nine attacks in the waterway so far in October.
And while oil shipments through Hormuz are approaching prewar levels with the US military’s assistance, the recent spate of Iranian attacks have already helped trigger another surge in oil prices.
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The US has moved its B-1B bombers from the Royal Air Force base in Fairford, England, citing terror threats.
The base had been used by the US in its bombing campaign against Iran earlier in the conflict, but the warplanes were hastily removed following the arrests of a number of men outside the base. UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham said it’s likely Iran was involved in the plot, with Trump saying the bombers were removed to lower the security risks.
British officials told Bloomberg they’re concerned Trump’s decision will embolden Tehran and Moscow to use more proxies to carry out sabotage attacks. European officials are already struggling to contend with a Russian campaign of so-called hybrid warfare attacks across the continent, with attempted attacks in Germany and elsewhere.
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Back in the Middle East, the Iran-backed Houthi militant group in Yemen also struck two airports in neighboring Saudi Arabia in the past two days, killing three people and injuring dozens more, in a blow to one of Washington’s key partners in the Middle East.
The US is currently opting out of taking a direct role in a Saudi-backed counter-offensive to take back Houthi-claimed territory, but Saudi Arabia’s allies could come under pressure to become more involved as ballistic missiles are fired toward Riyadh.