Right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro leads incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of Brazil’s presidential runoff, a new poll showed, building on momentum after a surprise showing in the first round vote.
Bolsonaro would win about 53% to Lula’s 47% of valid votes, excluding blank and invalid ballots, according to an AtlasIntel poll for Bloomberg News published Friday.
The senator secured about 47% of valid votes against 45% for Lula in Sunday’s first round , while conservative allies dominated congressional races that positioned Brazil for a broad shift right. AtlasIntel’s final poll of the first round had projected a 47% to 44% lead for Lula in the initial vote.
A victory for Bolsonaro would add Latin America’s largest nation to a regional right-wing wave that has seen conservative allies of US President Donald Trump win recent elections in Chile, Colombia and Peru.
Markets rallied after the first round vote, with investors betting Bolsonaro is more likely to pursue policies to address Brazil’s deteriorating fiscal situation and eventually create room for lower interest rates.
Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has since earned endorsements from numerous center and center-right parties ahead of the runoff.
Lula, meanwhile, has said he plans to target the roughly 33 million voters who didn’t cast a ballot in the first round, urging them to turn out for the Oct. 25 runoff in a flurry of social media posts.
Bolsonaro is promising tougher security policies and closer ties with the US, although he said Thursday that he’d work with China — Brazil’s largest trading partner — as well.
Some of the names that have been floated to manage Brazil’s economy should he win include Marcelo Kayath, Mansueto Almeida, Roberto Campos Neto and Alexandre Bettamio, Bloomberg News reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.
Lula is campaigning for stronger social protections, workers’ rights and a multilateral foreign policy that has defined much of his time in power.
The leftist president boosted social welfare benefits and banned online gambling ahead of the first round vote, part of an effort to ease pressure on households grappling with debt and the rising cost of living.
But the economy remains one of his biggest challenges. Inflation and high borrowing costs are squeezing consumers just as growth loses momentum, adding to the difficulties of a campaign Lula described as “the most disorganized” one he’s run in his decades-long political career.
AtlasIntel surveyed 5,026 voters from Oct. 3-8. The poll has a confidence level of 95%, a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point, and is registered with the country’s electoral court at number BR-03663/2026.