By Sarah Frier and Ryan Vlastelica | Updated on Oct 09, 2026 at 07:23 PM
When measuring the race between artificial intelligence leaders OpenAI and Anthropic PBC, investors have run into a problem: The two private companies calculate a closely watched revenue figure differently.
OpenAI is expecting to reach or exceed $70 billion in annualized revenue by the end of the year, Bloomberg News has reported, an increasingly common metric that extrapolates from shorter-term results. Anthropic, meanwhile, hit $65 billion in annualized revenue in July. But the numbers are not apples to apples.
Anthropic counts the gross amount of sales through cloud partners like Amazon.com Inc. as revenue. OpenAI recognizes only its share of revenue generated from such partners, including Microsoft Corp. As a result, OpenAI’s estimates could make it look like it’s significantly lagging Anthropic — even if it isn’t. Investors have tried to re-calculate the figures so they align, only to conclude they don’t have enough information to do so accurately.
In the absence of other publicly disclosed financials, those figures from OpenAI and Anthropic have persisted as a crucial but imperfect indicator of whether the trillion-dollar AI boom will pay off. As the tech rally keeps stock indexes holding near record highs, any indication of weaker sales growth from the two firms has the potential to ripple through the broader market and upend expectations for other companies like chipmakers profiting from the surge of AI investment.
The heightened attention for the annualized figures became apparent Thursday, when tech stocks stumbled after reports that OpenAI’s revenue projections would be lower than some news outlets had previously reported. But the discrepancy was due to attempts by OpenAI’s investors to more directly compare its figures to Anthropic, according to the Financial Times, citing a person familiar with the matter.
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OpenAI is currently on track for annualized revenue of roughly $50 billion, Bloomberg News has reported, less than the $70 billion annual revenue run rate that some outlets had recently reported. The ChatGPT maker expects to approach that higher level later this year, Bloomberg News reported.
“It is difficult to invest when such a major player is something of a black box,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott. Any uncertainty about the business trajectory of OpenAI and Anthropic “adds another level of doubt that has already been persisting and vibrating through the market.”
OpenAI and Anthropic are far from the only AI companies that emphasize annualized revenue. Over the course of the current boom, a growing number of buzzy startups have used this metric to show growth and justify their lofty private-market valuations.
Annualized revenue, also known as annual revenue run rate (ARR), calculates what yearly revenue is possible if the activity during a shorter period — a month or a quarter, for instance – continued, or if the future 12 months of contract value materialized. Ultimately, companies have a fair amount of latitude in how they determine the figure and it could be easily distorted if future sales fall through.
“The entire thing is like looking at a kindergartner’s report card,” said Aswath Damodaran, professor of finance at New York University’s Stern School of Business.
It’s generally acceptable for firms like OpenAI and Anthropic to recognize either net or gross revenue, as long as they are being consistent with their own respective figures to ensure maximum clarity for investors, Damodaran said. Ultimately, however, he thinks the debate over the technical underpinnings of annualized estimates serves as a distraction from the immense sales they’ll need to generate to offset their spending and support valuations in excess of $1 trillion.
Beyond the differences in the two companies’ revenue recognition, they’re promoting a number that has almost nothing to do with the financial statements investors use quarter by quarter. ARR is not a standardized accounting metric and it can be calculated based on a range of figures, from the most recent week or month to the best week or month in a particular quarter.
“The fact we’re focusing on ARR means we’ve already lost the script,” Damodaran said.
The annualized estimates can differ notably from the actual revenue they expect to recognize in a calendar year. OpenAI is currently expecting to generate roughly $35 billion in revenue in 2026, half the annualized pace it’s projecting it will hit at year end, according to people familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity as the information is not public.
That echoes a similar discrepancy seen in Anthropic’s actual revenue and the annualized pace that investors watch: While it took in roughly $4.6 billion in 2025, according to documents seen by Bloomberg News, by the end of that year it was pegging its annualized revenue at over $9 billion , Bloomberg News has reported. Its sales have grown at a fast clip since then.
On sales through its partners, Anthropic calculates the gross revenue because it sees cloud partners such as Amazon as the distribution channels for its product. The company’s accounting treatment may vary depending on the type of customer deal.
The Claude maker is now on the cusp of a Wall Street debut when it will disclose more standardized financial metrics. OpenAI is expected to follow suit in the months ahead.