Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists are turning positive on global stocks for the short term, citing a boost from strong earnings for markets already trading near all-time highs.
Equity prices are less demanding after higher oil prices and bond yields stalled the rally, while the outlook for profits is still healthy, the team led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann wrote in a note. They raised their three-month view on stocks to overweight from neutral, matching their bullish stance over a 12-month timeline.
“Earnings growth remains supportive for equities and the recent valuation de-rating has improved asymmetry into the third-quarter earnings season,” Mueller-Glissmann said.
The equity market is set for a high-stakes reporting season that will be crucial to sustaining the rally through to year-end. Analysts expect S&P 500 companies to post a 25% jump in third-quarter profits compared with a year earlier, among the best rates of increase on record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
The Goldman strategists expect stocks to surpass even that high bar.
Other Wall Street strategists, including at Bank of America Corp. and Barclays Plc, have also turned more bullish about the outlook for US stocks recently, citing among other things a robust earnings outlook.
The Goldman team prefers a “barbell strategy” of global tech names with selective rate-sensitive, bond-proxy stocks that have derated since the summer. They remain overweight on Asia and the US, and underweight on Europe.
They still view higher rates and energy prices as the main near-term risk to stocks, while the US midterm elections could also boost volatility.
The strategists remain neutral on bonds over three months, but have switched to overweight over 12 months. Allocations to bonds are becoming more attractive to those with longer investment horizons, they said.
“We believe bonds should gradually move from portfolio headwind to hedge,” they noted.