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Good morning from Birmingham. The mood at Conservative Party conference is pretty elated. Some thoughts on why in today’s note.
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Buoyant mood
There is a plausible theory underpinning the Conservatives’ buoyant mood. The government is pursuing classic Labour Party economic policies, which have left the centre ground completely vacant. Reform is mired in scandal and is otherwise too polarising to win. The Liberal Democrats aren’t really interested in challenging the Tories on the centre right. Current global economic conditions are bad for incumbent governments. Therefore, the theory goes, Britain will at the next election turn its grateful eyes back to the Conservatives.
This is, in theory, really plausible. Kemi Badenoch’s big eve-of-conference policy announcement about giving everyone who earns more than £100,000 free childcare tackles a real problem in our system, as the current “cliff edge” incentivises people to reduce their hours. Moreover, the offer is laser-targeted at the voters the Conservatives badly need to win back from the Lib Dems.
That said, the policy may not have the desired effect because almost everything else the Conservatives under Badenoch do and say is laser-targeted at telling Lib Dem voters that her party doesn’t share their values. Hers is still a Tory party committed to Brexit, and opposed to the European Convention on Human Rights and net zero. Some argue that the Conservatives simply aren’t going to win over many forty-somethings with these positions, no matter how much free childcare you give them.
But it is equally plausible that swing voters will choose a Conservative Party they are economically aligned with over a Labour Party they have more in common with on constitutional and cultural grounds. As I say, the Tory party has a fantastic theory that might well come off.
The problem is, in the here and now, it hasn’t yet. The Conservatives are polling at 20 per cent and their electoral record in local elections is still pretty dire.
Now try this
This week, I mostly listened to From the Edge by Richard Bundy and Anna Phoebe while writing my column·.
Top stories today
Put the brakes on | Richard Parker, the Labour mayor of the West Midlands, has urged John Healey to water down Britain’s electric car production targets to prevent damage· to carmakers and their suppliers across the region.
‘Master storyteller’ | Jeffrey Archer, former Conservative politician and colourful bestselling author, died yesterday at the age of 86, the day before the publication of what he said would be his last book.
‘Cautious optimism’ | Can Kemi Badenoch return the Tories to power? FT reporters crunch the numbers.