Oil prices surged as much as 5 per cent on Thursday, pushing Brent above $105 a barrel, following an escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and amid signs that a revival in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is petering out.
The international crude benchmark climbed sharply after tankers were hit by missiles in the Gulf and off the coast of Oman late on Wednesday, and Saudi Arabia said three people were killed in Houthi attacks on its airports this week. It later fell back and settled 4.1 per cent higher at $104.28.
Oil prices had eased in the second half of September as shipping picked up through the strait, a vital channel connecting Middle Eastern oil producers with international markets.
But traffic has dipped again following an increase in hostilities this month, including a strike on a tanker off Qatar on Wednesday evening.
Data from trade consultancy Kpler showed that average weekly flows through the Strait of Hormuz climbed as high as 15mn barrels a day in late September, almost 90 per cent of prewar levels.
But these have since fallen back to about 11mn b/d. Preliminary data showed just 4mn barrels transiting the strait on Tuesday.
“The whole story that flows through the Strait of Hormuz have returned has been turned upside down,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management.
UK Maritime Trade Operations, which monitors shipping, reported nine attacks on vessels near the strait in the first week of October, after 13 over the course of September.
It said it was advised on Wednesday evening that a tanker had been struck by multiple projectiles off the coast of Qatar and that casualties had been reported.
Separate maritime security sources said Iran had fired missiles at a tanker off the coast of Oman on Wednesday night, the first such attack outside the strait for a month.
Saudi Arabia said a man and two women were killed in separate attacks claimed by Iran-backed Houthis on two Saudi airports on Tuesday and Wednesday, with dozens of people injured.
The Atlantic magazine reported on Wednesday that US President Donald Trump was considering a plan to strike Iran before the midterm elections in November.
Brent gave up part of its earlier gains on Thursday after Trump said in a post on his Truth Social platform that the US had been having “productive discussions” with Iran and “will not be attacking” the Islamic republic before the elections.
A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico has forced some US producers to halt production, adding to the upward pressure on prices. West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, settled 3.6 per cent higher at $91.49 a barrel, but had been up more than 5 earlier in the day.
Much of the oil transiting the Strait of Hormuz in recent months has done so via shuttle services in which a small number of tankers cross the waterway and transfer cargoes to ships waiting outside the Gulf.
The resulting high cost of shipping, along with a sharp reduction in refining capacity, has boosted prices of crude and of refined products.
Brent is trading about 45 per cent above its price on the eve of the Iran war, while European diesel is up almost 100 per cent.
Additional reporting by Alice Hancock and Ian Smith in London