LONDON -- It's been a long, hot summer for Nigel Farage.
Britain's leading populist has been battered by a string of scandals over political donations. His Reform UK party lost its lead in the polls. And on Thursday he faces an election for his own parliamentary seat against a man who goes by Count Binface and wears a trash can on his head.
Farage was widely expected to win his Clacton district in eastern England and return to Parliament. But his political woes are unlikely to end there. Investigations by a parliamentary watchdog and the police over gifts and millions of dollars in donations await, the outcome of which could force him to contest his seat yet again.
The probes aren't the only political headwinds for the former commodities trader who has repeatedly shaken up British politics. After comfortably leading the polls for about 16 months, Reform has fallen behind the ruling Labour Party, which has surged back into a narrow lead with the arrival of Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who replaced Keir Starmer in July.
Farage's party is also leaking some voters on the right to a new, far-right party called Restore Britain, which is backed by Elon Musk and promises a harder line on immigration, including deportations of any immigrant using social housing or welfare.
From a peak of about 32% support in the polls last fall, Reform is down to second place with an average 23.6%, according to an average of seven different opinion polls, about 2 percentage points behind Labour.
"The chances of a majority Reform Parliament have pretty much disappeared," says Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary, University of London.
Two years ago, Farage entered Parliament with a plan to deploy President Trump's playbook in Britain, launching a political blitzkrieg that saw Reform jump to the top of the polls and win a drumbeat of local elections on an antiestablishment platform.
The timing was good. Britain was coming off a record-breaking surge in legal and illegal immigration that had turned the issue into a major issue. The then governing Conservative Party had overseen the rise, leaving a chunk of the electorate to conclude that neither major party was serious about tackling the issue.
Farage filled the void, and his party gained swaths of working-class British voters, mostly from the Tories. The rise of Reform marked the first time in British politics in the past century that a party other than Labour or the Conservatives has led for so long in the polls.
"Farage is the most effective political communicator the U.K. has seen for 50 years," says Phil Cowley, a politics professor at Queen Mary.
But recently, his grip on the political narrative has slipped. Farage is under scrutiny over donations made to him and his party before his return to politics in 2024. The U.K. Parliament's standards commissioner is investigating a previously undisclosed 5-million-pound donation, equivalent to around $6.7 million, from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne, which was made shortly before Farage announced he would stand for election.
It isn't against parliamentary rules or the law to receive large donations but the money must be disclosed so voters can know who is funding their candidates. Farage has said that the donation was a personal gift to pay for his security at a time when he wasn't an elected politician and so didn't need to be declared. But parliamentary rules state all donations or gifts in the 12 months before an election need to be declared.
Either way, pollsters say the large donation from a billionaire undercuts Farage's image as an outsider fighting the establishment on behalf of the working class.
Police are also investigating reports that a Montenegro-based British financier, who served eight months in a U.S. prison for fraud, made donations to Reform via his mother, potentially breaking disclosure rules. Farage has said he has "no idea" whether funds were sent to Reform via the mother. "If the money was hers legally and she gave the donation, I don't see what the problem is," he said recently. Reform didn't respond to a request for comment.
Farage last month quit his seat in the House of Commons and announced he would immediately run for re-election in protest at what he framed as an establishment trick. His bet: A win would show that voters don't consider the scandal a serious issue.
The move backfired after all the other major parties decided not to field candidates. That means Farage's main contender is a comedian named Count Binface, as well as some 32 other candidates, including three from the Official Monster Raving Loony Party and a man calling himself Joseph 77.
Farage will be hoping for a clear-cut win and decent turnout in a district that heavily backed Brexit. One poll showed that Binface -- whose policies include holding a referendum on whether Pluto should regain its status as a planet -- could get as much as 20% of the vote. Another poll showed that across the whole country, voters would prefer if the trash can won.
Complicating matters: If the parliamentary watchdog finds Farage didn't properly disclose the donation, he could be suspended and have to run for the seat all over again.
The scrutiny has coincided with a series of disappointing electoral results for Reform. In June, the party was beaten in a special district election in northern England -- where it was seeking to block Burnham, then mayor of Manchester, from entering Parliament, which would allow him to replace Starmer as Labour leader and prime minister. Reform also lost a subsequent vote for Burnham's replacement as mayor.
Burnham has since relaunched Labour as a more overtly left-wing party, announcing wider state subsidies to cap bus fares and cut voters' energy bills.
Reform has lost some harder-line voters to Restore, and some centrist voters to the Tories, who are talking tougher on immigration. But pollsters say it is way too early to write off Farage. There is still a long way to go before national elections have to be called -- by August 2029. Burnham is enjoying a bounce, but faces tough decisions about how to manage Britain's rising welfare costs and bolster the country's economy.
Immigration also remains a flashpoint. Legal immigration into the U.K. has been falling for three years, and illegal immigration is down this year. But the issue still comes at the top of voters' concerns.
"He and Reform are doing less well, but there is probably a large base of voters who support him come what may, and Reform are still doing far better than any challenger party has done in recent times," says Tony Travers, a professor at the London School of Economics.
One big question is whether Farage himself, who has quit politics in the past, may grow tired of the drama. "It's one thing to be rising in the polls and winning local elections," Travers added. "But things have turned a bit lately. How long will he go on if things remain difficult?"