When the Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates, the market immediately starts to wonder: What will break?
During the last cycle of rising rates, which started in 2022, one thing that broke was regional banking. Lenders such as Silicon Valley Bank, which had invested low-cost deposits into low-yielding bonds, saw the value of those bonds plummet as yields surged, opening up capital holes that contributed to customer outflows. This culminated in a mini banking crisis by early 2023.
However, the situation in U.S. banking now has some important differences from four years ago.
Below, some of the best analysis and insight from WSJ writers and columnists, the Dow Jones Newswires team and occasionally beyond, on investing, the wealth-management business and more.
Planning & Investing
The Mighty American Consumer Is Crashing Through Inflation and Driving Growth
Spending is rising because prices are climbing and Americans are buying more stuff, despite long-running frustrations over inflation.
Market Talk
From Dow Jones Newswires
The September ISM services survey highlights the Federal Reserve's dual mandate tensions. In the survey, the 'prices paid' index rose to its highest level since July 2022. "The ISM nonmanufacturing survey underscores the need for the Federal Reserve to raise rates in October and December as it seeks to unwind the rate cuts from 2025," a note from Oxford Economics said. Along with intensifying price pressures, the supplier deliveries index signaled slower delivery times, or additional supply stress. Meanwhile, Oxford Economics said the employment and business activity components point to a stable labor market. (Jessica Coacci, jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
European energy majors' earnings are set to more than double on the same period last year, Barclays analyst Lydia Rainforth writes. The sector should report earnings close to $35 billion with underlying free cash flow around $45 billion, she says. The benchmark refining margin is at unseen levels of around $40 a barrel, which, coupled with trading, will drive downstream earnings, she adds. Meanwhile, European natural gas prices are the key driver of upstream earnings, she says. (Adam Whittaker, adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
Barron's Advisor
How Women Can Protect Their Nest Egg From a Late-Career Layoff
Everyone in the workforce needs a financial plan that's built to absorb unexpected shocks-especially, this financial adviser argues, women over 50.
Business & Practice
What's the ROI on EDM? Brands Are Throwing Raves as Promotional Events
Brands are hosting raves and dance parties to attract young consumers and content creators by offering experiences they genuinely want to attend.
Impact Investing
Private Equity's Great Run Buying Power Plants May Be Ending
Asset-hungry power companies and rising costs for new projects are shrinking the pool of investment targets, energy bankers say.
Talking Points
The Layoff Announcements Keep Coming, but No One Knows Who, Where or When
The memo arrives in employees' inboxes with unsettling news but few specifics: Layoffs are coming. Soon. Exactly who will get the ax, and when it will fall, isn't divulged.
Travel & Lifestyle
Afternoon Wake-ups and 1 a.m. Dinners: How F1 Drivers Beat Jet Lag
To stay sharp at the Singapore Grand Prix, drivers live in a nocturnal bubble where everyone pretends they're still in Europe.
Beyond the Newsroom
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