The U.S. scramble to remove all 12 B-1 bombers from the U.K.'s Fairford air base on Sunday tells us much about Iran, Britain and the emerging threats to U.S. forces and assets. None of it is good.
The danger, U.S. and European officials say, concerned a potential Iranian drone attack on the aircraft and U.S. personnel on base. A U.K. government spokesman said the country's military bases are safe and declined to comment on the U.S. decision. That's putting a brave face on it.
The U.S. move -- with B-1s reportedly taking off even before refueling aircraft were fully ready to assist -- may speak instead to the urgency. Even after the arrest of five masked men next to the base, plus a British-Iranian picked up later, the threat persisted.
Begin with Iran, from which an "October surprise" attack before the U.S. elections would be no surprise at all. Among Trump officials, it is now expected. This could have been it, and there will be other attempts as long as Iran's regime persists. Tehran speaks frequently of revenge, including in personal terms against President Trump and his team.
Each day seems to bring a new low for Iran's currency, now trading below 2.7 million rials to the dollar. Inflation is at 90%, with food prices more than doubling. Rolling blackouts disrupt industry while new oil exports crash to zero. The regime can't stop any of that.
Instead it can chase U.S. military assets out of bases in the Middle East -- and now beyond. The cost of the damage to U.S. bases in the Gulf and as far as Jordan is mounting, and a restoration isn't guaranteed.
U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham cited "strong indications" Iran played a part in the initial plot on Fairford. On Tuesday British prosecutors unveiled an Iranian plot against two dissident journalists, who were surveilled in the U.K. in alleged preparation for violence. Earlier this year the Brits identified an arson wave targeting U.K. Jews as the work of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, contracting locals to firebomb synagogues.
Yet Iranian terror on British soil has been met with a lackluster response. Force protection at Fairford is part of that, and advancing U.S. counterdrone technology will help. Every loss of a B-1 has become more concerning now that the U.S. has so few of them -- some 44 today, down from 100 in 1988.
But for Britain the bigger problem has been finding the will to confront the Iranians and go on offense against their terror networks. Does protecting U.S. jets and U.K. Jews fit the bill?
The IRGC, like Vladimir Putin, clearly doesn't think it will pay much of a price for orchestrating terror in Britain -- or many other states. Until that changes, even the best defense technology can only do so much.
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