With four weeks to the midterm elections, Democrats are odds-on favorites to win control of the House and an even-money bet to net the four seats they need for a 51-49 majority in the Senate. Polls and anecdotal evidence suggest that Democrats are more enthusiastic than Republicans about voting in November and are more likely to do so. The shift of Hispanic support away from the president and his party will dilute the effect of his mid-decade redistricting push, especially in Texas and Florida. It remains to be seen whether the Republicans' cash advantage and focus on the alleged danger of communism within the Democratic Party will be enough to counterbalance their structural disadvantages.
President Trump's declining support has created opportunities for the opposition party. Elected in 2024 with nearly 50% of the popular vote, the president's national job-approval rating stands at 38%. It has fallen sharply in many red states, such as Texas (43%), Ohio (42%) and Iowa (42%). Although Republican Senate candidates are running ahead of Mr. Trump in these and other contested states, his depressed standing will probably be too much for some of them to overcome.
Beneath the aggregates, some unexpected trends have emerged. Mr. Trump's tariffs and trade war with China sharply reduced exports of soybeans in 2025, and the war with Iran has increased farmers' costs for diesel, fertilizer and other key supplies. Last year, crop farmers' cost for inputs exceeded their revenue by more than $36 billion. Farm bankruptcies rose by 46% in 2025 compared with 2024, and they have soared again in 2026. Hard times in the agricultural sector, especially for crop farmers, have produced competitive Senate races throughout the Midwest, including Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska.
Mr. Trump's intervention in Republican Senate primaries has worsened his party's prospects in November. Exhibit A is his decision to back MAGA favorite Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn in Texas, turning a near-certain victory into a competitive race that Democrat James Talarico is now favored to win. In South Carolina, the president's decision to back the late Sen. Lindsey Graham's sister, whose qualifications for serving in the Senate aren't obvious, could backfire: She leads by only 2 to 3 points in a state the president carried by 18 points in 2024. In North Carolina, Mr. Trump's threat to back a primary challenge to Sen. Thom Tillis helped drive Mr. Tillis into retirement, all but handing the seat to Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper over Michael Whatley, the president's loyal but lackluster choice. In Georgia, Mr. Trump's longtime feud with Republican Gov. Brian Kemp has strengthened Democrat Sen. Jon Ossoff, who was regarded as vulnerable a year ago.
On the other side of the ledger, unexpected Democratic vulnerabilities have emerged after some Democratic incumbents opted to retire. In New Hampshire, which Kamala Harris carried in 2024, Republican former Sen. John Sununu is giving Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas a tough race. In Minnesota, the party's Senate nominee, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, is finding it hard to escape the drag of Gov. Tim Walz's mishandling of a huge social-services scandal centered in the state's large Somali community. In Michigan, progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed, who defeated moderate Rep. Haley Stevens for the Senate nomination, leads Republican Mike Rogers by 3.5 points but is averaging only 48% of the vote and is running well behind the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, who leads her opponent by 9 points. A Democratic loss in any of these states would leave the party with the daunting task of winning three races in states Mr. Trump carried by double-digit margins in 2024 (four if Maine incumbent Susan Collins beats her flawed challenger, Troy Jackson, in a state where disapproval of the president stands at 64%).
Other trends have tilted the playing field against Republican candidates. Anger over the Supreme Court decision wiping out many black majority districts in the House is likely to spur black turnout in November. Rising concern over artificial intelligence has left the administration and many Republican candidates on the wrong side of public opinion. While 44% of likely voters think that the Democratic Party has become "too extreme," this figure rises to 56% for Republicans. Voters believe that neither Mr. Trump nor congressional Republicans have devoted enough attention to high and rising prices, the people's top concern, and the president's focus on personal projects such as the White House ballroom, the Kennedy Center and the memorial arch has deepened this perception. As concern about public corruption increases, 52% of likely voters have come to believe that Mr. Trump has used his office to enrich his family and friends.
Whatever the outcome of the midterm elections, one thing is clear: Mr. Trump has forfeited a historic opportunity to turn his impressive 2024 performance into an enduring Republican realignment. The groups that flocked to him less than two years ago -- especially independents, Hispanics and young adults -- are now among his strongest critics. As public support for both major parties has ebbed and the country moves toward an election without an incumbent president in 2028, the parties' choices of candidates, issue agendas and overall orientation will be unusually consequential.
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