Good morning. When it comes to navigating interest-rate policy, Federal Reserve policymakers aren't in a big rush to act.
That's the main takeaway from the latest Fed minutes, published Wednesday. Policymakers didn't make an urgent case for another rate increase at their upcoming October meeting, reports my colleague Matt Grossman, who covers economics for The Wall Street Journal.
Key quote: "Most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal-funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end," the minutes said. "Participants emphasized, however, that they approached each meeting with an open mind and decisions at future meetings would depend on incoming information."
Officials were unanimous in backing the September rate increase to respond to persistent inflation. Although most officials anticipate one more rate increase before the year concludes, future actions will remain strictly dependent on data we see between now and the next meeting.
I asked Matt for his take from his reporting in Washington, D.C.
What do the latest Fed minutes tell you about how officials at the central bank are thinking about the economy as a whole, or how they are weighing inflation risk?
We knew from the Fed's September rate increase that officials had lost their patience waiting for inflation to cool on its own, and the minutes confirmed that there was broad agreement the September hike won't be the last. We also learned a bit more about how exactly officials justified their first rate increase in three years.
Many considered it a prudent move to guard against the risk that inflation will remain higher than anticipated. A smaller group of officials were more concerned still, saying their baseline forecast already includes inflation stiff enough to warrant the rate increase.
Did investors see anything new or find clues today about the Fed's thinking regarding further interest-rate hikes?
In the September dot plot, the majority of officials told us they expect to raise rates once more this year, although some favored two more hikes and a couple favored none. Two key Fed policymakers, John Williams and Philip Jefferson, hinted last week that we should expect that next rate increase to come in December, not October-and the minutes said nothing to contradict that outlook.
What do markets tell us?
Based on their bets in futures markets, traders only see one-in-five odds that rates will rise again at the October meeting, and that barely changed after the publication of the September minutes.
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The Day Ahead
Earnings
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What Else Matters to CFOs
U.S. crude oil inventories fell unexpectedly last week, and product stocks were mixed as refineries stepped up their capacity use, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Commercial crude oil stocks excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 2 and were about 1% above the five-year average for the time of year, the EIA said. Crude stocks were expected to have increased by 1.7 million barrels, according to a Wall Street Journal survey of analysts.
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***
Frasers Group bought up a stake in embattled sportswear brand Under Armour, the latest deal in the British retailer's expansion strategy.
The group-founded by billionaire Mike Ashley-bought 16.6 million shares in Baltimore-based (Under Armour), representing 8.8% of the company, according to a filing.
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Earnings wrap-up
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For more earnings news, click here.
The Big Number
1,066
Number of confirmed cases of measles so far in Pennsylvania since an outbreak began in April, according to the state's department of health. An accelerating measles outbreak in the state is now the country's biggest since 1991.
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