Good morning. Presidential races traditionally start in Iowa, where the state's caucuses often produce bustling, energetic-and sometimes confusing-outcomes. It's the beautiful backdrop of early political euphoria.
Novembers in Iowa don't traditionally bring as much drama.
Republicans in recent years have tightened their hold on the state, controlling the governor's mansion since 2011 and holding both U.S. Senate seats since 2015.
That could be about to change.
The margins in Iowa's race for governor and one U.S. Senate seat are looking razor thin, according to polls.
GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek are locked in a tight duel for the Senate.
Similarly, Republican Zach Lahn appears to be slightly trailing Democrat Rob Sand to become the state's next governor.
One big question is: Why?
Rising energy prices are affecting everyone, but energy issues tend to hit harder in Iowa, where agriculture and ethanol are central to many livelihoods.
Vulnerable Iowa GOP incumbents have broken with President Trump on the Iran war, reflecting this dynamic (energy prices are higher because of the war).
So watch Iowa on election night. If it's closer than in years past, or if Democrats somehow find a way to break through, that could tell us a lot about 2026 and the mood heading into 2028. It could also set up the narrative for the presidential races early, as the state might feel like it's in play for the first time in quite a while. If Republicans hold on to the Senate seat and the governorship, the GOP candidates might have deftly positioned themselves in a way to avoid some of the broader national crosscurrents.