The AI investment boom is driving an expansion in global goods trade volumes at a pace last seen during the period of rapid globalization that was ended by the global financial crisis, according to new forecast from he World Trade Organization.
However, that expansion is being driven by a small number of economies, with significant parts of the world missing out, while trade in services is set to grow more slowly than previously expected as a result of the war between the U.S. and Iran.
The Geneva-based body raised its growth forecast for the global trade in goods this year to 3.9% from 1.9%, and lifted its projection for next year to 4.1% from 2.6%. Following growth of 4.2% in 2025, if realized, those projections would leave volumes more than 12% higher in 2027 than they were in 2024.
That is a multi-year rate of expansion last seen in the years before the crisis of 2008 and 2009, and testament to the scale of the U.S.-focused investment boom's impact on the global economy.
Below, some of the best analysis and insight from WSJ writers and columnists, the Dow Jones Newswires team and occasionally beyond, on investing, the wealth-management business and more.
Planning & Investing
Choosing the Right Bond Strategy for Today's High-Yield World
Before chasing higher rates, bond buyers have to figure out what type of investor they actually are.
Market Talk
From Dow Jones Newswires
Alternative assets such as hedge funds look more attractive given high market volatility in stocks and bonds, UBS global wealth management strategists Matthew Carter and Tony Petrov say in a note. Alternative assets depend less on stock and bond moves, they say. In the current environment, "the goal could be to seek either returns that depend less on stock and bond markets or assets that are less volatile in turbulent times." Nonetheless, investments in alternative assets, including hedge funds, carry risks such as illiquidity and complexity, they say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
September was a very tough month for global fixed income, given the challenging performance for the asset class, MFS Investment Management's Benoit Anne says in a note. It was particularly tough for long-duration indexes-those most sensitive to the sharp spike back to triple-digit territory for the MOVE index, an indicator of rate volatility, says the head of market insights. Tax-exempt municipal bonds produced a minus 4.36% negative return for the month, their worst monthly performance since September 2008, he says. Given the substantial rise in U.S. rates, U.S. indexes underperformed, including the U.S. Treasury index which was down 2.24% for the month, he says. Euro indexes outperformed, with euro investment grade only down 1.33% for the month, Anne says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
Barron's Advisor
Here Are Adviser Firms' Go-To Business Metrics
Wealth management leaders rely on these business metrics to understand whether their day-to-day operations match up with their long-term visions.
Business & Practice
The AI Price War Is Heating Up-and OpenAI Is Gaining Ground on Anthropic
Both companies need to show Wall Street they have sustainable businesses ahead of planned IPOs.
Impact Investing
Investors Wary of Dedicated Power Projects for Data Centers
Strict requirements for round-the-clock power create contractual risks for 'behind-the-meter' project developers, infrastructure investors say.
Talking Points
Electric Big Rigs Struggle to Compete, Even With Diesel at $8 a Gallon
California ports consider $60-a-trip subsidies as truckers struggle to cover the steep costs of zero-emission fleets.
Travel & Lifestyle
The Quest to Save Rural Pay Phones, 52 Calls at a Time
Driven by nostalgia-and maybe the apocalypse-an army of 'phone spotters' is racing against the clock to rescue the U.K.'s remote red boxes.
Beyond the Newsroom
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