Remember when tariffs were supposed to be the killer issue for Republicans, the path to the hearts of the working class and a durable majority? That isn't working, as Michigan GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers calls for a cease-fire in President Trump's senseless trade war with Canada.
Michigan once looked to be a GOP pickup opportunity, and it still could be. But most polls show far-left Democrat Abdul El-Sayed with a growing lead, in no small part because of Mr. Trump's trade escalation against Canada. The two candidates were running neck and neck until mid-August, which was when Mr. Trump's 50% tax on $20 billion in Canadian goods took effect.
Mr. El-Sayed is no free trader, but he has been pounding Mr. Rogers on the border taxes against Canada because he knows they are unpopular in the Wolverine State. Even United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain has criticized them. After months of ducking the issue, Mr. Rogers on Wednesday released an ad distancing himself from the tariffs.
"Here in Michigan we know that Canada is not our enemy. We need to end this tariff war -- now," the Republican says in the ad. He's repeating the point on the stump, and he's right. Yet Mr. Trump keeps escalating. After Canada retaliated against his latest tariffs, Mr. Trump threatened 50% tariffs on Canadian cars, trucks, automotive parts and steel. Last week he banned Canadian imports of alcoholic beverages and motorcycles. Mr. El-Sayed sends his thanks and best wishes.
Canada exports about $40 billion in goods to Michigan every year with vehicles and parts making up roughly half of the total. Michigan's manufacturing supply chains are deeply integrated with Canada, and small businesses especially have borne the tariff brunt since they have less capacity to absorb the costs than larger companies do.
Voters know they are paying more because of the tariffs even if they don't know exactly how much. Michigan families have paid $27.2 billion in tariff-driven costs since January 2025, according to the business outfit Michigan Smart Trade Alliance. That's roughly $6,658 per household.
The Anderson Economic Group estimated the auto tariffs on Canada and Mexico alone last year totaled approximately $1,600 for every vehicle assembled in the U.S. That doesn't include tariffs on steel and aluminum. The border taxes are shrinking the margins of U.S. auto makers, which means smaller profit-sharing bonuses for workers.
General Motors says it expects a tariff cost hit of between $2.5 billion and $3.5 billion this year. That could mean $3,500 less in bonuses for workers. Didn't Mr. Trump say his tariffs would help manufacturing workers in places like Michigan? Instead, they are hurting Republicans in swing districts and states around the country.
In New York's 17th House district, Democratic challenger Cait Conley is hammering GOP Rep. Mike Lawler on tariffs, which she says have "jacked up prices on goods for the average household in the Hudson Valley by $4,200." If Republicans lose control of Congress, Mr. Trump and his ham-handed border taxes will deserve much of the blame.
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