The prediction market is examining a series of trades that correctly predicted the appointment of Katie Zacharia, who wasn't previously seen as a front-runner
By Brian Schwartz, Philip Wegmann and Ken Thomas
Prediction market Kalshi has launched an investigation into a series of suspicious trades on their platform about the selection of President Trump's new White House press secretary.
The company said it is probing a series of trades on their platform that predicted Trump would select conservative commentator Katie Zacharia to be his next press secretary, a Kalshi spokeswoman said. The spokeswoman declined to comment further.
Around 2 p.m. ET on Friday, the New York Times and other news outlets began reporting that Zacharia had been picked to serve as the next White House press secretary. At least three small but well-timed wagers were placed beforehand in which bettors stood to make thousands of dollars in profit.
One $19 bet was placed around 10:43 p.m. Thursday evening, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of publicly available Kalshi data. Once the market closes, it is slated to pay out $1,896. Another two bets, for about $74 and $80, were placed around 1:41 p.m. Friday. Those two bets are expected to pay out $3,689 and $4,023.
Though she worked briefly at the Department of Homeland Security and appeared widely as a media commentator, the conservative pundit wasn't considered a front-runner for the prestigious position. In the days leading up to the news report, on Kalshi she was seen as having about a 1% likelihood of being named to the post.
The White House didn't return a request for comment. The president confirmed in a Truth Social post on Friday afternoon that Zacharia would become his next press secretary. "I am confident that Katie will deliver strong results for our Country," Trump wrote.
The proliferation of prediction markets has created a new temptation for knowledgeable insiders to try to cash in on proprietary information.
Trump's teleprompter operator, Gabriel Perez, was fired from the White House after he netted more than $100,000 in profits on bets about the president's speeches. Perez reached a settlement agreement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in August. The CFTC didn't return a request for comment before publication.
After a series of well-timed bets related to the Iran war, the White House previously sent a memo to staff warning them against using nonpublic information for private gain.
Prediction markets allow users to bet on everything from sports to world events. While trades are anonymous to the public, Kalshi keeps records of traders' identities.
Betting markets are increasingly becoming part of the fabric of Washington. They are particularly popular among young, male staff, some of whom have previously said in interviews with the Journal that they are placing bets on everything from congressional races to the status of legislation.