Spoiler alert: Probably not.
Moscow's commitment to release 4.8 million tons of diesel into the market is "unlikely to make a substantial difference" to prices, according to Jefferies strategist Mohit Kumar. Here's how the numbers break down:
The headline number works out to 35.8 million barrels, using the U.S. Energy Information Administration's conversion of 7.46 barrels of middle distillate fuels per metric ton (Trump's announcement didn't specify whether he was talking about metric tons or U.S. short tons, which are a little smaller-let's go with the international benchmark).
The U.S. guzzled roughly 3.8 million barrels a day of distillate fuel oil this year, according to the EIA, most of it diesel. If Russia releases the promised amount, it would cover just over nine days of U.S. demand.
There's also a couple of catches:
The first is that the release will start small: 300,000 tons, or 2.24 million barrels. Russia's ability to refine diesel has been impacted by Ukrainian strikes on its fuel infrastructure, which prompted it to ban exports in July. Last year, Russia was exporting roughly 900,000 barrels of diesel a day, according to data from Vortexa.
The next 500,000 tons are supposed to follow in November and 1 million "immediately thereafter," according to Trump, with Russia to deliver the remaining 3 million tons "within a short period of time," based on the condition of its refineries.
The other catch is that, even if Russia releases all that fuel, the U.S. won't get all of it. Global diesel and fuel-oil demand typically makes up roughly 30% of total oil demand, or well over 30 million barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency.