Kyiv, Ukraine -- By now everybody in defense knows about the global shortage of Patriots and other high-end interceptors. But the war here is showing that the arms innovation cycle is relentless and cheap drones can become an equally dire problem. Fall behind in technology or scale to counter them, and you pay in blood. Russia's newest breakthrough is a jet-powered drone, and Ukraine lacks a good response. The good news is that Kyiv has a framework for catching up quickly. The West should pay attention. It may need one.
Russia's jet drones can fly up to 375 miles an hour with a maximum altitude of about 5.5 miles -- too fast for Ukraine's current stock of interceptor drones and too high for man-portable air-defense systems. Jet drones have a range of nearly 600 miles and carry a maximum payload of almost 200 pounds. Ukraine intercepts only 55% of them, compared with more than 90% of the older Shaheds. The Kremlin is launching up to 100 jet drones a day. They cost $100,000 or less each. Ramping up production is a Russian priority.
Jet drones aren't only a Ukrainian problem. Vladimir Putin wants to break the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and is testing what level of aggression he can get away with in Europe. An increasing number of drones are straying into NATO airspace amid aerial attacks on Ukraine. Europe has repeatedly failed to detect suspicious drones over sensitive military sites and infrastructure, and the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies has warned that Russia is likely behind these incursions and probing for air-defense vulnerabilities.
Danish defense intelligence recently warned of "a low but growing risk" of a "limited" military attack "against one or several NATO countries bordering Russia." The Spanish publication El Mundo reported in late September about warnings from U.S. intelligence that Moscow could launch a drone attack on Europe from ships in the Mediterranean. Moscow shares information about drone technologies and tactics with China, Iran and North Korea. Last week concerns about an Iranian drone attack prompted the U.S. to move its B-1 bombers from a British military base.
The El Mundo report focused on Russia's smaller Gerbera drones, but older models of Shaheds can be launched from a ship deck, as can jet drones in all likelihood. A prominent Russian military blogger recently published maps with potential jet-drone targets in the U.S., the U.K., France and Poland. Targets include major military bases, tech and defense companies, nuclear power plants, ports and airports. Deterrence requires the ability to identify such threats and a cost-effective countermeasure, but adversaries have reason to suspect the West lacks both.
To understand how Ukraine is responding, last month I visited an air-defense center protecting Kyiv, one of several such hubs nationwide. I interviewed the commander and deputy commander but agreed not to publish their names, given the sensitivity of their work.
Ukraine's air-defense system collects data along the front line and across the country from tens of thousands of audio, visual and thermal sensors and radars. In the air-defense center, a real-time digital map displays everything in Ukrainian airspace. The system automatically provides information about the number and types of threats and their location and speed.
In total the system can provide up to 150 discrete details about an aerial threat, while an unassisted human can pick up fewer than five. Closed-system artificial intelligence helps Ukraine analyze and act on all this data to mount a timely air defense. The air-defense center also manages deconfliction, ensuring that kinetic and electronic countermeasures against Russian drones don't result in friendly-fire damage.
Russia's massive combined drone and missile attacks are "designed to overwhelm your defenses, and one way to deal with it is slicing your response," the deputy commander says. Electronic warfare is the cheapest countermeasure available. The system identifies whether an enemy drone may be vulnerable to electronic warfare and executes a defense accordingly. Failing that, the air-defense centers coordinate responses up the echelon both geographically and kinetically, like a zone defense in football. The goal is to use the cheapest countermeasure at the earliest point to neutralize the threat, with all decisions driven by data.
This air-defense system gives Ukraine a head start as it develops a cheap, reliable interceptor for jet drones. Kyiv has collected extensive intelligence about how the new drones function, so weapons developers know what specific problems they need to solve. Several interceptors are in testing, and developers receive near-instantaneous feedback and adjust accordingly. Ukraine's air-defense system accounts for the rapid innovation cycle, so any new tool can be plugged in and used as soon as it's ready: different type of interceptor, but same basic air-defense concept.
The bad news is that until Ukraine develops and scales a jet-drone interceptor, "we are in deep s -- ," says Yuriy Sak, a former adviser to Ukraine's Defense and Strategic Industries ministries. There are major challenges ahead. Given the jet drones' high speeds, the new interceptors will require sophisticated technologies that may be hard to procure. "Scaling up is tough because of constant attacks," Mr. Sak says.
Here in Kyiv, aerial attacks have been so intense that authorities are contemplating designating the capital a front-line city. The threat extends far beyond civilian morale. Russians can target Ukraine's weapons manufacturers and its energy grid at the same time. Ukraine's weapons developers need reliable power to produce at scale, and the attacks on energy infrastructure, ports and grain-export vessels will also hinder the Ukrainian economy, hurting tax revenue. Kyiv's best option may be to pursue joint production in partner countries.
During this window, Ukraine's air defenders are taking advantage of the precision of their information about incoming aerial threats to blunt the danger and disruption to businesses and civilians. Better-tailored air alerts can limit the number of businesses that have to shut down and avoid sending civilians to shelters unless a threat is imminent.
The West can do more to help Ukraine get through this dangerous interval. F-16s are the most reliable defense against jet drones, but Ukraine is flying them far more than the West anticipated, and too many are now out of commission pending maintenance in Belgium.
Ukraine was caught unprepared for the jet-drone threat in part because of financial constraints that force it to choose between competing defense research-and-development and procurement priorities. Europe has frozen billions in Russian assets, and it can strengthen its own deterrence by transferring some of that money to Ukraine.
Ms. Melchior is a London-based member of the Journal's editorial board.
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