It's hard to know what President Trump is up to at any one moment because he operates so much on tactical impulse. But he has long coveted grand bargains with Russia and China, and that may be his motivation now as he hardens his hostility to Ukraine and Europe and courts a Yalta 2 summit with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.
The Yalta analogy isn't entirely apt since Stalin and Churchill were U.S. allies in 1945. Russia and China are now adversaries. But the trio did try to carve up the globe, and that's the danger with what Mr. Trump says he's open to now. As we wrote before the 2024 election, this was one of our main fears for his second term.
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Mr. Putin has floated a meeting among the three men to settle the war in Ukraine. The Russian dictator has failed to conquer Ukraine after nearly five years, and he may figure his conquest now depends on opening a second front in global politics.
Mr. Trump suggested this week he's open to such a meeting: "Anything I can do to end the war, whether somebody's there or not, whatever I can do to end the war." The President in recent weeks has waived new oil tariffs and sanctions on Russia and offered Mr. Putin's war machine a cash infusion by letting Russian diesel flow into global markets.
Mr. Trump's new policy looks less like opportunistic pressure on Ukraine and more like a larger attempt to produce a false peace by appeasing Mr. Putin. Meanwhile, he's spent months chasing a deal with Mr. Xi. Is a larger accommodation with both what Mr. Trump is seeking as a legacy? If so, he is courting trouble at home and abroad.
Any confab among Messrs. Xi, Putin and Trump that tried to dictate Ukraine's fate would be a mistake that could plant the seeds for a larger conflict, not unlike the first Yalta that drew lines for the Cold War. All the more so because Messrs. Xi and Putin are working together to undermine America's interests and influence.
A new triumvirate that divided the world into spheres of influence would blow up America's global credibility as a reliable ally. U.S. allies may be punching bags these days, but the U.S. network from NATO to Japan, South Korea and Australia allows America to deter aggression and maintain peace before threats are dire.
Any coerced peace in Ukraine would divide NATO and broadcast to America's Pacific allies that the U.S. is a dangerous friend. As a practical matter we doubt even Mr. Trump could force Ukraine into capitulation, and the President would own the ugly scenes of carnage that followed if he pulled intelligence and targeting help.
Curb your enthusiasm about a China alliance as well. Mr. Trump might want China's promise not to help Iran, but what price would the Communist Party chief exact?
Mr. Xi wants Taiwan in his strategic soul, and he aspires to subdue the island without having to take the risk of a blockade or military assault. Expect Mr. Xi to exploit any opening with Mr. Trump to push the U.S. out of the Pacific, perhaps including less U.S. support for the 23 million free people across the Taiwan Strait.
Mr. Trump said a meeting would focus on "denuclearization," and credit the President for ending arms-control agreements that Russia wasn't following and China wasn't signing. By all means, try to get Beijing to own up to its spectacular nuclear buildup. But Beijing doesn't want to talk about nukes until it's on equal footing with the U.S.
As for U.S. politics, Mr. Trump's advisers may tell him that voters don't care about the post-1945 "global order." But the public understands that China and Russia aren't American friends, and they know looming trouble abroad when they see it. GOP lawmakers are already unhappy with the President's appeasement of Mr. Putin, especially given that Mr. Trump has so far failed to rebuild the U.S. military.
Since the Vietnam war, the GOP coalition has included defense hawks and Jacksonians who favor U.S. leadership even if they dislike military adventures. Handing over Europe to Russia, and the Pacific to China, would open a major party division. Mr. Trump may be two weeks from being a lame duck, and maybe some GOP Senators will finally find the courage to speak up.
It's true that Congress and the courts can't stop a determined President on foreign policy, but they can make him pay a political price. A second Yalta is arguably the worst idea of the second Trump term, and the President would be betting far more than his own legacy.
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