Message comes as nations worry they will be left to clean up after Iran war ends
By Feliz Solomon
DOHA -- Regional security officials received a sobering American message as they gathered in the Qatari capital and braced for a potential new round of escalation between the U.S. and Iran: They need to look out for themselves.
Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey and President Trump's special envoy for Syria and Iraq, said the grand bargains that have underpinned global security for decades are undergoing major transformation, and countries in the Middle East and elsewhere should focus on securing themselves via regional partnerships.
"America as the guarantor to the world, for the last 80 years, it is no longer there," Barrack said at the Global Security Forum in Doha, an annual summit that brings together top security officials and experts from around the world. "What's happening in this administration is not an abandonment. It's a message for realignment."
"And that message is like raising a teenager. It's not easy," he said.
Arrangements forged in the wake of World War II -- essentially a quid pro quo whereby the U.S. provided security in exchange for oil -- no longer fit Washington's imperatives, Barrack said. Americans don't want to sacrifice their lives for the Middle East, and Gulf states know the U.S. can't assure their security, he said.
He said the region is right to pivot toward smaller and more diversified alliances like the new defense pact between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey. But he acknowledged the transition would be uncertain.
"We don't have a playbook," he said. "We're all on audibles. We can go one play at a time."
Trump administration officials have delivered similar calls for self reliance at security gatherings in Europe and Asia.
Gulf states tried and failed to talk Trump out of going to war with Iran. Barrack's message lands as they worry the U.S. will retreat from the conflict, leaving them to deal with an angered and newly aggressive foe. Many are questioning whether they can rely on the U.S. as a partner even as they recognize there are no good alternatives to its military technology and backing.
Barrack said the war launched by the U.S. and Israel in late February brought unexpected consequences, likening the Middle East to a Rubik's Cube whereby a single move can change the whole picture. He said there are lessons to be learned and limits to U.S. power.
"Every time we try and intervene and change the person or the regime, it seems to have been a mistake," he said, pointing to Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan.
American administrations have long hoped to disentangle the country from the Middle East without success. Even now, the Trump administration is delivering a mixed message.
Last year, the U.S. added Saudi Arabia as a major non-NATO ally, a list that includes Gulf neighbors Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait. Trump also continues to build up forces around Iran. The military is bringing in a third aircraft carrier and an additional Marine expeditionary unit, and is resupplying forces in case needed for a renewed fight.
"We're not leaving," Barrack said.
Both Trump and Iranian officials have signaled they're preparing for a possible resumption of large-scale hostilities after a monthslong impasse in diplomacy. The U.S. has ramped up economic pressure on the regime, but that has so far failed to bring about a breakthrough, and regional allies are bracing for the possibility of another round of fighting that could potentially hit sensitive energy infrastructure.
Gulf countries are looking nervously at Saudi Arabia, where missile and drone attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants have damaged energy facilities and the international airport in the capital, Riyadh.
Saudi Arabia appealed to the U.S. to intervene militarily, but Trump has limited the country's role to providing intelligence and guidance. The damage done by the Houthis' attacks has heightened concerns about the region's ability to fend off further missile and drone incursions after burning through air defenses earlier in the war.
Barbara Leaf, a top Middle East envoy under former President Joe Biden, said regional allies are already moving away from dependence on U.S. protection but there are limits to an American retreat.
"They're already doing, I think, a lot of logical things -- diversification of security partnerships and security defense equipment resources," she said, also speaking in Doha. "I think we simply haven't seen where things will ultimately go yet, and therefore how these regional partners are best suited to defend themselves, but they do need big partners like the U.S."
Ali Vaez, an Iran analyst at International Crisis Group, said the region hears different messages from different U.S. officials, which hurts America's credibility and leads countries to hedge their bets.
"At the end of the day, the United States will remain highly influential and involved in the region's defense, but it has proven to be clearly insufficient," he said.