Some saw the referendum as giving oxygen to a movement that previously had only marginal support
By Amanda Coletta and James T. Areddy
EDMONTON, Alberta -- When Alberta Premier Danielle Smith called a referendum on whether the province should stay in Canada, she said the vote would decide the divisive sovereignty debate once and for all.
A day after Albertans dealt a significant blow to the oil-rich province's independence movement, with more than three quarters voting in favor of staying in Canada instead of taking steps toward a second referendum on separation, some separatists said the dispute over independence was still alive and well.
Alberta's political observers said time would tell whether the referendum had stanched out separatist sentiment for good or entrenched a movement that has long had marginal support in the province's politics by giving it oxygen in a high-profile referendum.
"It's an empowered movement as a result of this," said Janice Stein, founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto. "This is the beginning, not the end."
Questions Tuesday swirled around Smith's political future and whether she would be able to keep her party that's divided over separation together. Some separatists in recent days had vowed to seek to oust her as leader of the United Conservative Party.
"The biggest questions that linger over the political system in Alberta is: Does this splinter the party? Do you see a long-term independence movement persist that either operates within the party or maybe takes it over or does the party split?" said David Coletto, chief executive of pollster Abacus Data.
The referendum result, he added, showed that Canada is a country that remains "largely united" in the face of President Trump's tariffs and threats of annexation. A good chunk of those who voted for a second referendum, Coletto said, did so not because they support leaving, but to send a message of protest to Ottawa.
Feelings of alienation have long ebbed and flowed in the restive province of Alberta. They deepened over the last decade after former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took power and began imposing policies that his Albertan critics said put curbing greenhouse-gas emissions over oil and gas production. Alberta is home to the world's fourth-largest proven oil reserves.
Smith came to power in 2022 with the support of separatists in her party and she has sought to use their existence as leverage in her dealings with Ottawa. She eased their path to a referendum, including by lowering the number of signatures needed on petitions to trigger one, but said she's a federalist and would vote to remain in Canada.
Albertan political observers largely viewed Smith's gambit as a way to manage divisions in her party, but it risks backfiring.
Federalists accused her of putting national unity on the line to placate separatists in her party. Separatists wanted a yes-or-no vote on leaving and saw her support for federalism as a betrayal. Her party has slumped in the polls and recently lost a special election in a stronghold.
Many Albertans on Tuesday were questioning the point of the whole exercise.
Sheldon Sunshine, chief of the Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation, denounced the referendum process as a "big waste of money," which has mostly served to compel Prime Minister Mark Carney's government to align more closely with oil and gas interests in Alberta. He said that had come at the expense of First Nations in the province.
Jeff Olson, a bowling alley owner who backed separation, saw some benefits. He said that while the result was within his expectations, he felt that awareness of the independence movement and its grievances had been raised. Olson said the next steps should be for it to form a political party like the separatist movement did in Quebec.
"At least now they know 25% of the population is not happy," Olson said.
Other referendums haven't always settled the debate. Some 60% of Quebecers voted to stay in Canada in a 1980 referendum, but the province returned to the polls in 1995. Federalists won again, but by a slim margin. Scotland's 2014 independence referendum quieted separatist sentiment but didn't extinguish it. Brexit hasn't been the final word on Britain's relationship with the European Union.
"In other parts of the world that have had these movements, they don't disappear overnight," Coletto said.
Polls suggest Albertans also aren't convinced that the referendum put the issue to bed. A survey last week from the Angus Reid Institute found that 62% of Albertans believe there "will never be an end" to separatism. A poll from Abacus Data found that 61% believe they'll be asked to vote again on separatism in the future, even as a majority say they're eager to move on.
Duane Bratt, a political scientist at Mount Royal University in Alberta, said separatists now have access to funding, are practiced at mobilizing and remain concentrated within the conservative movement. "So I don't think it's going to go away any time soon, even though it should with a loss of this magnitude," Bratt said.
Albertans voted on nine other nonbinding referendum questions, with the preliminary tallies pointing to a bumpy road between the province and Ottawa.
More than half of voters said Alberta should take greater control of immigration from the federal government and work to limit it. Slightly more backed tightening rules around how newcomers to Alberta can access social services such as healthcare and education.
Carney said Tuesday that he had spoken with Smith to discuss future cooperation and noted that there had been large reductions of asylum seekers, international students and temporary foreign workers in Canada. He pledged to work with the provinces on "more solutions."
Over bruschetta and pizza at an Italian restaurant in downtown Edmonton on Monday night, people wearing clothing emblazoned with the Alberta flag and watching the results come in at an event hosted by the Alberta Prosperity Project, one of the most prominent groups pushing for independence, said the fight was just starting.
"It will not stop until Alberta is heard," said Deb Robertson, who voted for a second referendum on separation. "This kind of thing sometimes takes years, but until we are listened to, it will not stop. It will go forward -- no matter what will happen."