Christine Lagarde's Lonely Next Act: Defender of a Fading Globalist Order

Christine Lagarde was 17 years old when she left her home in northern France to study as an exchange student at an American all-girls school.

Lagarde was still reeling from the recent death of her father when she arrived in the suburbs of Washington, D.C., and was for months homesick for France. "I wanted to be independent, but first I was alone and would soon be lonely," Lagarde recalled later.

Lagarde found her way in the end, joining a local synchronized swimming team, gorging on American peanut butter and working on her English. The year in Bethesda, Md., was a turning point, setting the foundation for a nearly five-decade-long career that has been defined by two identities: the jet-setting globalist with big jobs in capitals like Washington and Frankfurt, and the Frenchwoman with a deep affection for her home country.

These dual roles fueled Lagarde's decision this week to step down early as head of the European Central Bank, a perch from which she felt limited to defend her traditional, pro-Europe principles. Lagarde, 70, said she could no longer remain neutral on certain issues -- namely, she told colleagues when explaining her decision, what is happening in her home country, according to people familiar with the matter.

France has entered a period of unrest, rocked by violent youth protests and a convulsing bond market. Next year's presidential election to replace Emmanuel Macron is threatening to add fuel to the fire. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen and far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon are the race's front-runners, both proposing populist policies that economists fear would push la République closer to a financial crisis.

Lagarde is seeking to leverage her experience at the highest echelons of global policymaking to fight back against what she has described as an erosion of truth. "There are things that I can say. Whether people will listen or not is another story," she said this week.

Lagarde is wagering that her brand of politics -- one built on a rules-based order, Bretton Woods institutions, and the promise of a united Europe -- still has a place in a world increasingly driven by polarization and inward-looking politics.

"Her fear is for the establishment to see more radical parties taking over -- parties that have a tradition of being opposed to European policies, to the ECB. She wants to have a voice in that political debate," said Frederik Ducrozet, a longtime ECB observer who is head of strategy at Pictet Wealth Management. "She would say she wants to adapt to the new world, not preserve it. But the reality is she belongs to a former generation of leaders."

Lagarde has played coy on what exactly she will do after leaving the ECB in February. In a press conference this week, Lagarde was peppered with questions from journalists about what comes next. Will she run for office in France? Could she be heading to Brussels next? What is her motivation for leaving? And why leave the bank while Europe's economic outlook is growing dimmer?

She answered none of them directly.

"I think that my voice can help, my action can help in relation to principles that are dear to my heart," she said.

One option Lagarde is considering is heading the World Economic Forum, the institution known for drawing billionaires, heads of states and CEOs to Davos, the small resort town in the Swiss Alps, each January.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and Swiss billionaire André Hoffmann have been co-chairing the forum jointly since its embattled founder Klaus Schwab resigned last year.

Lagarde is the favorite to take on the job permanently, and a vote is expected on her candidacy by the end of the year. The forum board discussed running a formal search process for a new chair, but trustees decided not to follow through, according to people familiar with the organization. Some trustees told forum supporters that Lagarde wouldn't wait for a formal candidate-nomination process, some of the people said.

Lagarde is seen among Davos planners as someone who can be a steady, high-profile leader following a period of instability and infighting at the nonprofit organization. Trustees -- of which she is one -- have wanted someone with global name recognition and who can deftly host the VIPs crucial to keeping the Davos machinery well-funded and the annual conference well-attended.

Some trustees pushed for someone younger, with direct business experience and a strong underpinning in technology. And Fink has been frustrated this year about resistance to governance changes he sought to make, according to people familiar with the matter. He previously has said Lagarde would be a welcome candidate in a nomination process.

The bigger question is what role Lagarde wants to play in French politics. She has said she wants to be involved in the election, though she has said repeatedly she isn't a candidate for Macron's job herself. That hasn't stopped the European rumor mill from speculating on a potential Lagarde run.

Part of Lagarde's reluctance to enter the fray, she has said, is her age.

"First there is a question of vitality, energy and strength. Then there is an element of inevitable sacrifice with this type of commitment. And I'm 70 years old," Lagarde said in an interview with a French newspaper published in late September.

Hervé Morin, the president of the Normandy region and a close friend of Lagarde, thinks her voice could still be valuable in the election.

"She commands a lot of respect," Morin said in an interview.

But political analysts say her name recognition inside France has waned. Lagarde has spent most of the past 15 years outside of the country, though she often returns to France from Frankfurt on the weekends.

Many in France also remember her from her association with the scandal-plagued former French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who was convicted of conspiring to seek campaign funds from the regime of Libyan strongman Moammar Gadhafi. Lagarde herself in 2016 was convicted of negligence -- but spared punishment -- for her involvement in a payout to a businessman when she was working as Sarkozy's finance minister.

And despite her middle-class upbringing, some see Lagarde as an elitist, often bedecked in Chanel and carrying bags from Hermès or Louis Vuitton. Before entering politics, Lagarde spent 20 years as a corporate lawyer, eventually rising to become Chicago firm Baker McKenzie's first female global chair.

"The answer to France's problem is not globalist Lagarde," said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group, a political consulting firm. "She may have held these big jobs, but she's not a hugely known quantity in the French context."

Lagarde's resignation is nevertheless already making waves in France, with leaders on both sides of the political spectrum accusing her of resigning early as a way to block the winner of next year's election from having a say in picking her replacement.

"Is their goal to convince us that Europe has become as disrespectful of the French people's votes as Macron believes?" Mélenchon said Thursday on X.

Jean-Philippe Tanguy, a French lawmaker and close aide to Le Pen, called on French people to protest.

"Macron and the system have completely veered off course toward illiberalism," he wrote on X responding to a video of Lagarde's resignation.