WASHINGTON -- Republicans saw another blaring warning sign and they called in JD Vance.
A poll released earlier this month showed GOP candidate Anthony Constantino down by 4 percentage points in a rural New York district that Donald Trump had carried by 21 points just two years ago. The seat, long seen as a GOP stronghold, looked suddenly underwater.
Republican operative Roger Stone raised the alarm with the White House, according to people familiar with the matter, and suggested that a visit by the vice president could solidify the MAGA base and perhaps save the seat of retiring GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik. The vice president subsequently scheduled a trip there for the final day before the election.
The late visit to a deep-red district underscores how Republicans are scrambling to play defense amid disquieting signals of possible widespread losses.
Political strategists and pollsters of both parties say Democrats are strong favorites to win back the Republican-led House, as President Trump's approval rating drops amid deepening voter frustration over the cost of living and the war in Iran.
The GOP-controlled Senate remains a tossup, with Democrats making inroads into red territory, but also fending off tough Republican challengers in a number of their own seats, making for a more unpredictable battlefield.
Republicans saw a new glimmer of hope this week when the New York Times reported that Democrat Mary Peltola's team worked to recruit a spoiler candidate to help her party win a pivotal Senate seat in Alaska. The Trump administration and the state's Republican governor quickly launched investigations into the allegations.
'Brace for impact'
Still, in interviews with more than a dozen Republican lawmakers, candidates and top aides, the mood is grim.
"When donors and others ask me what to anticipate in this upcoming election, I say, 'Brace for impact. It's going to be a very tough election,'" said Steven Law, who previously ran the Senate Leadership Fund super PAC when Sen. Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) was the Republican leader.
Rep. Mike Haridopolos (R., Fla.) expressed optimism about the GOP's chances. But he said colleagues aren't taking any chances, putting cash into last-minute ads even in secure-looking races.
"Every member I talk to is like, 'I'm spending down to zero because you never know what's going to happen in a cycle like this,'" he said in an interview.
In Iowa, GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is in a neck-and-neck race for an open Senate seat, has pushed back against the president's policies on the campaign trail. In a recent appearance on ABC News, she was asked if she agrees with Trump's statement that the U.S. currently has "an A plus plus plus plus plus economy."
"Well, sure doesn't feel like it right now," Hinson said.
Trump and his advisers have made last-minute changes to their campaign plans in the final days before the midterms. On Thursday, the president said he was canceling plans to hold rallies over the weekend. Less than 24 hours later, the White House said events in Kansas and Iowa were back on.
Republicans' House majority currently stands at 219-214, with two vacancies. The Cook Political Report projects that the likeliest outcome is Democrats end up with between 227 and 240 House seats in the new Congress, out of 435 overall. In the Senate, where Republicans have a 53-47 edge, Democrats could claw back the majority if they have a good night in states including Alaska, Ohio and Texas.
Another nonpartisan race watcher, Inside Elections, changed its ratings in 64 House, Senate and governor races this past week. Of those, it shifted 63 in favor of Democrats and one in favor of Republicans.
Asked about midterm anxiety in the GOP ranks, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R., La.) encouraged candidates to get on the road and help fellow Republicans in 50-50 races, rather than stewing over the election environment.
"A lot of people just get anxiety because they watch TV and they see all these doom and gloom reports, and I think some of it's designed to suppress Republican turnout," he said in an interview.
A flurry of rallies
Trump, who has told supporters to vote as if he is on the ballot, has been holding rally after rally, often in places that would typically be considered safe Republican territory. He describes the midterms -- when a president's party typically loses seats -- as a comeback story, casting himself as the hero who will defy historical trends.
"I think I'm performing well," he said Thursday. "I mean the rallies are unbelievable."
A senior White House official contended last week that Trump was as upbeat in private as he was in public. Trump told aides last week that their efforts were building momentum for Republicans, according to a person who heard his comments.
But Trump's mood has soured in recent days, according to associates. His voice has grown noticeably raspy after nearly two weeks on the campaign trail.
Asked how he would navigate a Democratic-controlled Congress, he told reporters earlier this week, "we'll figure a way -- look I have strong veto."
In a statement, the White House said Trump "is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress." Trump remains popular among the MAGA base, and many Republican candidates haven't shied away from joining him on stage or embracing his agenda.
A new Wall Street Journal poll shows the challenge Republicans face this year. By 7 percentage points, more registered voters nationally say they plan to back a Democrat for Congress rather than a Republican, an advantage that will vary across the many competitive House and Senate races. Some 40% of voters in the survey approved of Trump's job performance, compared with 37% in September. But 59% disapproved -- the highest mark of dissatisfaction for any president heading into a midterm in Journal polling, which dates to the 1990 elections.
The poll also found that Republicans have lost their image as the party best able to manage the economy. In July 2025, for example, shortly after Trump took office, more voters saw Republicans in Congress as better able than congressional Democrats to handle the economy, by 12 percentage points. Now, the Journal poll found, they see Democrats as the better party, by 3 percentage points. The survey, which carried a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, included 1,500 registered voters and was conducted Oct. 14-22 by Democrat John Anzalone and Republican Adam Geller.
The House Democratic campaign arm and leadership PAC have increasingly expanded into safer GOP districts, an indicator that they are more bullish about expanding the map.
Some Republicans dismissed current polling, arguing it isn't an accurate indicator of how things will go on Election Day. The RealClear Politics polling average had Democrats up more than 8 percentage points on the generic congressional ballot as of Friday.
"What you're hearing in the polls is not what we're seeing on the ground. I really believe that," said GOP Rep. Mike Bost of Illinois, who recently traveled the country with party leaders. "Ever since we've had people living on their cellphones, the polling has been way off. It's always showing Republicans down, and they come back."
In a highly competitive Arizona House race that includes parts of Phoenix and Scottsdale, GOP candidate Jay Feely has recently started to put some distance between himself and the president. Campaign signs that had once said "TRUMP ENDORSED" have been replaced with "POLICE ENDORSED."
"Anxiety is for campaigns that didn't do the work," said Brady Smith, a strategist for Feely. "We've out-hustled our opponent at every turn, and on Election Day, that's going to show."