By Juan Pablo Spinetto | Updated on Oct 05, 2026 at 10:00 AM
Brazil’s election results Sunday make one thing clear: The country is turning further to the right, and not even the old lion of Latin America’s left, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, can stand in its way anymore.
You can see it in the stronger-than-expected performance of Flávio Bolsonaro. The 45-year-old eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro surprised pollsters by beating Lula, 47% to 45%, in Brazil’s first round to set up an Oct. 25 runoff. But the shift is even more striking when you look at congressional and local races: Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party is poised to have the largest bloc in the senate at the start of a legislature since the country adopted the 1988 constitution, while his allies won or retained key states including São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Paraná. The Bolsonaro family now not only has a real shot at returning to the presidency — no candidate has lost a runoff in Brazil after finishing the first round ahead — but also elected two other sons of Jair, his wife and his brother to congress.
What explains such a strong showing by a family whose patriarch is under house arrest for plotting a coup? Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) can surely come up with several explanations: At almost 81, Lula looks and sounds like yesterday’s man ; the president underestimated his rival, including by refusing to attend a crucial debate with Bolsonaro days before the vote; incumbents are struggling everywhere; the economy isn’t exactly booming, and affordability is hurting Brazilians; the Lula government’s approval rating has remained consistently below the 50% threshold needed to be competitive; the scandals surrounding the Supreme Court have further eroded his popularity. Plus, the president has conveniently forgotten that he had promised not to run for reelection again .
There is a bit of all that. But this vote also amounts to a fundamental rejection of Lula, the PT and its left-wing ideas. Brazil, historically a conservative nation, is becoming increasingly right-wing. The country is older, wealthier and more religious , with more independent workers and less influence from the unions that underpinned Lula’s political career. Crime, corruption and drug trafficking consistently rank among Brazilians’ biggest concerns, issues on which the PT has struggled to provide convincing answers. The campaign exposed a party trapped in its ideological bubble, struggling to attract the independent voters it needs to win. Its strategists only woke up in the final days, unveiling measures that reeked of populism and desperation.
There is no better symbol of this structural change than seeing the biggest political figure in modern Brazil struggling to beat an uninspiring senator who has himself been tarred by scandals and corruption allegations . “If you had to choose between me and a genius, that’s one thing. But that is not what is on the table,” Lula told businesspeople before the vote, dismissing his opponent. Well, this supposed non-genius is seemingly about to put his 50-year-plus political career to sleep.
Brazil’s turn to the right matches the ideological switch we have seen across Latin America recently. A Bolsonaro triumph in the runoff would mark the seventh consecutive win by a right-wing presidential candidate in the region in the past year, proof that beyond the problems facing incumbents, a deeper philosophical shift is afoot. That’s something that will please Donald Trump’s White House, even if ideological affinity doesn’t guarantee economic or strategic realignment .
Investors and markets, in the meantime, will cheer Sunday’s results because, particularly given the opposition’s strong showing in congress, they put Brazil closer to the fiscal adjustment and regulatory overhaul that the country needs . Flávio is younger and appears more pragmatic than his extravagant father; he has signaled a willingness to shrink the state in ways his father never took too seriously, even if he hasn’t provided clear details on his plans. But don’t be mistaken: The same congressional support that will help Bolsonaro Jr. advance his economic agenda is likely to produce a major institutional clash, as his senators push to impeach Supreme Court judges and an eventual Flávio presidency seeks a way to free Jair Bolsonaro from his 27-year sentence.
As Lula’s towering political influence fades, Brazil is entering a new era dominated by right-wing figures and ideas. The next three weeks until the runoff will surely produce surprises as candidates fight for every vote. If Bolsonaro seals his victory in the second round, the real test will be whether the country’s right can deliver better results for ordinary Brazilians than the left ultimately did.
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