NZ’s Major Parties Bleed Support to Smaller Rivals Ahead of Election

New Zealand’s governing National Party has slumped to its weakest result since 2020, while the opposition Labour Party has also lost support as voters shift to smaller parties less than five weeks before the election, a RNZ-Reid Research poll showed.

National, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, fell 3.2 percentage points to 25.9% and Labour shed 1.4 points to 30.8%, according to the poll published Tuesday. The election will be held on Nov. 7.

The two major parties have a combined 56.7% support, down from 64.9% at the 2023 election. Support has been flowing to minor parties due to voter frustration over National’s failure to significantly ease cost-of-living pressures or revive a sluggish economy, while Labour has struggled to provide a compelling alternative.

On the left, the Green Party jumped 4.6 points to 14.8%, while Te Pāti Māori fell 1 point to 2%. On the right, nationalist party New Zealand First was down 1.3 points to 10.6%, while the libertarian ACT Party was up 1.3 points to 9%.

If the result of the poll, which surveyed 1,000 people between Sept. 24 and Oct. 1, was replicated on election day, neither the existing coalition of National-New Zealand First-ACT nor a Labour-Green-Te Pāti Māori combination would have a majority in the 120-seat parliament.

That leaves the Opportunity Party, a small centrist party that has never entered parliament before, as the kingmaker. The party polled at 5.5%, meaning it would clear the 5% threshold to enter parliament.