A strengthening El Niño is threatening an already fragile outlook for cocoa supplies, with top grower Ivory Coast’s state weather agency warning of a rainfall deficit through early 2027.
The dry weather and heat stress also threaten other crops, including coffee, rubber and oil palm, Sodexam warned in a report published Thursday.
West Africa produces more than half the world’s beans, and weather risks could curb output and keep global prices elevated.
StoneX Group Inc. expects output in Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer to fall 11% to 1.8 million tons in the 2026-27 season. Neighboring Ghana, the No. 2 grower, expects its harvest to decline about 13% to 650,000 tons.
While the overall picture is one of a rainfall deficit, there is also the possibility of intense precipitation in some areas, leading to risks of urban flooding, the report warned.
El Niño can disrupt weather around the globe, bringing drought to some regions and heavy rainfall or flooding to others.
Cocoa futures in New York have been volatile this year as traders weigh the outlook for West Africa’s harvest. Prices have trended higher since touching a low of $2,846 a ton in March and are currently trading around $5,600 a ton.
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