Hello and welcome to the working week.
The IMF’s managing director has a warning for us all: “Winter is coming.” This may sound like stating the obvious, especially if you are in the northern hemisphere, but what Kristalina Georgieva means is that the remarkable resilience of the global economy in the face of multiple challenges cannot be maintained forever.
She will elaborate on this further in the decidedly unwintry surroundings of Bangkok this week as central bankers and economists gather for the annual IMF and World Bank meetings. Georgieva has urged national leaders to rein in public spending and get a grip on borrowing costs as bond yields surge.
The event will be well attended by economists and central bankers, several of whom will be sharing their opinions at panel events. More details on those and other keynote speeches below.
AI is another challenge facing the global economy, which makes the AI Summit that begins in Dublin on Wednesday an important event to watch. Microsoft president Brad Smith, Qualcomm chief Cristiano Amon, Google DeepMind chair Demis Hassabis and Analog Devices boss Vincent Roche will be among the speakers at the high-powered gathering, which is being hosted as part of Ireland’s six-month presidency of the EU.
Earnings season is back, with Wall Street banks once again kicking off proceedings. It’s set to be another bumper run of results for those masters of the universe, largely thanks to AI. With remarkably good timing for readers who aspire to join the banking fraternity, the FT has produced a special report on getting a career in finance. Want to know how to secure that first job? Read this.
Inflation is a theme in the run of economic data announcements, with monthly updates from the US and several European countries. Also, the Federal Reserve will publish its beige book summarising current US economic conditions. On Friday, the Office for National Statistics publishes its latest UK monthly GDP estimate, an important marker for chancellor John Healey ahead of his Budget later this month.
One more thing . . .
The annual British Museum ball returns on Saturday, celebrating London’s status as an international centre of culture. It is a sentiment with which I cannot disagree. And neither can Paris-born Frieze EMEA director Eva Langret.
Disagree? Get in touch at [email protected] or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply. And have a good week.
Key economic and company reports
Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.
Monday
Catherine Mann, an external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, and Beth Hammack, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland president and chief executive, speak at the National Association of Business Economics annual meeting in Cleveland, Ohio.
EU: long-term interest rate statistics
Japan: Sports Day national holiday. Financial markets closed.
US: Columbus Day national holiday. Financial markets closed.
Earnings calls: AEP Plantations Q3 trading statement, LVMH Q3 revenue
Tuesday
Bank of England MPC’s Megan Greene speaks to the Atlantic Council think-tank on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank’s annual meetings in Bangkok.
IMF publishes its latest World Economic Outlook, a twice-yearly analysis and projection of economic developments. Tomorrow it publishes its Fiscal Monitor, assessing public finances of global economies.
Opec monthly oil market report
Japan: September corporate goods price index inflation rate data
UK: BRC September Retail Sales Monitor
Earnings calls: Albertsons Q2, Angling Direct HY, Bellway FY, BP Q3 trading statement, Bytes HY, Citigroup Q3, Domino’s Pizza Q3, Goldman Sachs Q3, Greencore Q4/FY trading update, IntegraFin Q4 trading update, Johnson & Johnson Q3, JPMorgan Chase Q3, Oxford Instruments trading update, Reach Q3 trading update, UnitedHealth Q3, Wells Fargo Q3, Whitbread HY, YouGov FY
Wednesday
Federal Reserve vice-chair Michelle Bowman, Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem, Banco de España governor José Luis Escrivá and Central Bank of Ireland governor Gabriel Makhlouf speak at the IIF Annual Membership Meeting.
European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde speaks at the Atlantic Council 2026 virtual event as part of the IMF-World Bank annual meetings.
Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaks at a Citi roundtable during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings.
IEA oil market report
China: September trade figures
Japan: Bank of Japan accounts
US: September consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate and real earnings data. Beige Book published.
Earnings calls: Ashmore Q1 AUM statement, Bank of America Q3, BlackRock Q3, Fastenal Q3, Morgan Stanley Q3, Rio Tinto Q3 operations review, Softcat FY, State Street Q3
Thursday
Junko Koeda, a member of the Bank of Japan’s policy board, speaks at a meeting with local leaders in Kumamoto.
Victoria Cleland, executive director for payments at the Bank of England, speaks at the Intergraf Currency and Identity Conference in Denmark.
Australia: September labour force survey
France: September CPI inflation rate data
Switzerland: September producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data
UK: August GDP estimate
US: September PPI inflation rate data
Earnings calls: Alcoa Q3, BNY Q3, Charles Schwab business update, Dunelm Q1 trading update, Interactive Brokers Q3, Manpower Q3, Marsh Q3, Mondi Q3 trading update, Pernod Ricard Q1 sales, PNC Financial Services Q3, Prologis Q3, Seraphim Space Investment Trust FY, Travis Perkins Q3 trading update, TSMC Q3, US Bancorp Q3
Friday
IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva fireside chat with Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh.
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey speaks at IIF Annual Membership Meeting in Bangkok.
EU: September harmonised indices of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data
US: September import and export price indices
Earnings calls: Citizens Financial Group Q3, M&T Bank Q3, Travellers Q3, Truist Q3
World events
Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.
Monday
Canada: Thanksgiving, a public holiday.
Ethiopia: 65th session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change begins in Addis Ababa, running until Friday.
France: Paris Motor Show begins, running until Sunday.
Thailand: IMF and World Bank annual meetings begin in Bangkok.
Tuesday
North Africa: King Felipe VI and Queen Letizia begin a two-day visit to the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, the first by a Spanish monarch since 2007. It comes two months after thousands of migrants entered Ceuta from Morocco.
Spain: Jordan Bardella, president of the French far-right party Rassemblement National, gives a speech in Madrid, introduced by Santiago Abascal, president of Spain’s far-right Vox party.
Wednesday
Ireland: AI Summit in Dublin.
Japan: Railway Day, celebrating the opening day of the country’s first railway in 1872 between Shimbashi and Yokohama.
UK: The Frieze Art Fair and Frieze Masters 2026, Britain’s largest contemporary art event, opens to the public in Regent’s Park, London.
Thursday
Belgium: European Council meeting of EU heads of state and government begins in Brussels, chaired by council president António Costa.
Canada: fifth Montreal Climate Security Summit, hosted by the Conference of Defence Associations Institute and the Nato Climate Change and Security Centre of Excellence.
Switzerland: Fifa Council meeting, when president Gianni Infantino is expected to release the documents relating to his plan to sell off a stake in the World Cup.
UK: Scottish National Party conference begins in Aberdeen, running until Saturday, when First Minister John Swinney gives the keynote speech. Separately, King Charles III and Queen Camilla attend the ceremonial opening of the Senedd in Cardiff.
Friday
Belgium: EU summit concludes.
UK: English National Opera season begins at the London Coliseum.
Saturday
Japan: start of the annual Fall Rites at the Yasukuni Shrine. Visits and offerings will be made by rightwing Diet members and cabinet officials. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is unlikely to visit as she has in the past.
UK: The British Museum ball in London
US: “No Kings” nationwide day of action “against billionaires, strongmen and politicians who think they are above accountability”.
Sunday
Israel: third Q2 GDP estimate
Bangkok: IMF and World Bank annual meetings signing ceremony.