Middle Eastern oil exports have returned to prewar levels as shipping companies use alternative routes to bypass chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz targeted in the conflict.
In the week to October 18, shipments from Gulf oil producers excluding Iran averaged 24.6mn barrels a day, higher than the 23.3mn prewar average, according to data compiled by Kpler.
That takes the seven-day average for exports to its highest level since mid-February, days before the US and Israel struck Iran, igniting a war that has stymied exports from the world’s biggest oil-producing region.
The figures, which are preliminary, are far more volatile than before the war. They include the Strait of Hormuz — through which the vast majority of the region’s prewar exports passed — as well as ship-to-ship transfers just beyond the narrow waterway and flows from Red Sea ports.
Shipments through Hormuz itself are still more than a third lower than before the war, the data shows.
Despite the rebound in the region’s exports, the oil price has been rising in recent months as markets for some oil products show increasing signs of strain, and on Tuesday Brent crude, the international benchmark, hit its highest level since May. On Wednesday it traded at $108.77 a barrel, flat on the day.
Saudi Arabia routed a lot of oil through its Red Sea port of Yanbu in response to attacks on ships sailing through the Gulf, but flows through this alternative route have dipped periodically in response to attacks on the pipeline that serves the port and on nearby ships. For instance, flows through Yanbu were lower following an attack in mid-September on the pipeline that connects Saudi oil production to the port. Those volumes have since rebounded after Saudi Aramco completed repair work on the pipeline.
Oil exports from the region have remained buoyant this month despite an uptick in attacks on vessels. UK Maritime Trade Operations, which monitors such incidents, has reported 28 attacks on shipping in the region in October, after 18 were recorded over September.
Two ships were targeted on Tuesday night, according to maritime security sources. One tanker was hit in the north of the Gulf near the Iraqi coast, showing the expansion of Iran’s attack range. The vessel was in the vicinity of Khor Al Zubair port, according to maritime security company Vanguard.
The second was struck in the early hours of the morning off the Omani coast, according to an alert from the Pakistani Navy.
Both of the crews were reported safe, despite a fire on board one, which was subsequently put out, maritime security company Vanguard said.