First, get a hearing. Since the Conservatives lost the general election in 2024, the populists have sucked up most of the oxygen. It has been a rude awakening for the party, which languishes in third place in the polls and still faces possible annihilation. Some of its tone had been unappealingly shrill. But the Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has now opened up a possible path back to power.
This week has marked a significant shift in Tory strategy, in three respects. Badenoch’s visceral and authentic attack on Reform UK’s leadership categorically ruled out any future pact — and crucially she took her audience of party members and activists with her. We are now going to see a fight to the death on the right, which the Conservatives may yet lose. This is a big gamble by the Tories — Nigel Farage’s core support is entrenched despite the crypto-shenanigans, and the Conservatives lost their deposit in two of the four by-elections this year. But the move still comes as a relief to many Tory MPs who were sick of chasing a man they loathe. And the Labour slogan “vote Tory, get Farage” no longer holds water.
When it comes to Labour, the government’s leftward drift has opened up an obvious argument about the economy, enterprise and the size of the state. Prime Minister Andy Burnham appears lukewarm about business and has no theory of growth beyond devolution. The coming Budget would be a challenging one for any chancellor, but this government’s tendency to postpone difficult decisions does not inspire confidence.
Even more striking, to me, was the Conservative mea culpa. The Right Way, a 100-page document published at this week’s party conference, is a lengthy statement of principles and policies. It also contains a clear-eyed acknowledgment of past failures. Badenoch declares in the foreword: “We promised lower immigration without a strategy for delivering it. Net Zero was legislated for before we had an economically feasible route to get there. We left the European Union without the economic plan that should have gone with it.” To deliver such a message takes a very strong leader indeed. I take issue with the idea that any economic plan could have made a success of Brexit. But this indicates a party which is moving forward.
Britain needs an end to political drama, and it needs competence. Badenoch has put an end to the infighting in her party. But if the Conservatives are to be trusted again, they must also choose pragmatism over ideology. It would be wrong to quibble over nationalising water, for example, a natural monopoly which should never have been privatised. And their promise to ditch inheritance tax lacks the clear link to growth of other tax pledges on national insurance and stamp duty.
If they are wise, the Tories will be careful not to rise to their opponents’ bait. In choosing to focus on electoral reform and a possible EU rapprochement at his own party conference, Burnham was making a clear overture to the Liberal Democrats, and inviting the right to respond by looking unhinged. Reform UK has already screamed at the idea of getting closer to Europe. But Burnham’s vague pledges are of the “talks about talks” variety.
The Conservatives should instead hold the government accountable for what it’s doing right now: making it harder to employ people, failing to rein in welfare, planning to dismantle reforms that dramatically improved educational outcomes over the past 20 years. It also seems unlikely that any future Conservative government would row back on an improvement in UK-EU relations or even Burnham’s curbing of the triple-lock ratchet. Better to keep your powder dry and focus on the issues you want to talk about.
This will still be an uphill battle, especially when the best chance of getting on the airwaves is to shout. I continue to assume that Burnham may call an election next year while the right is split. But he has promised not to, and the numbers aren’t great: Labour would lose its majority, according to the latest More in Common analysis. And while it would be the largest party, it wouldn’t muster enough numbers to govern even with the Liberal Democrats. That means bringing in the SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru or some combination.
Badenoch’s path to power is far narrower, with no obvious coalition options. But the picture is complicated by the fact that almost half of all parliamentary seats are on a knife edge. The Conservatives are in second place in 63 of Reform’s 102 marginal seats, while Reform is second in 49 of the Conservatives’ 80 marginal seats. More in Common suggests that a mere 1 per cent swing from Reform UK to the Tories could dramatically change the picture. So Badenoch may be able to win back ground without returning to the Tories’ former level of national support.
Burnham is clearly uniting the left. But on the right, the Conservatives can’t just wait for Reform UK to implode. The question is whether they can start to look like a government-in-waiting beyond the leader. Their tone has often been uncomfortably shrill. On the environment, The Right Way states that “net zero scepticism is not climate-change scepticism” and that “the case is harder to prosecute as long as people believe they are the same thing”. But the party hasn’t helped itself by simply sounding anti-environment.
Britain needs a competent opposition. Voters need the option of a party which is pro-enterprise. If the public is willing to start listening again, the Conservatives could be back in the game.