FirstFT: Flávio Bolsonaro secures early lead in Brazil’s election

Good morning and welcome to FirstFT. In today’s newsletter:

• Flávio Bolsonaro leads after first round of voting in Brazil’s election

• US recalls B-1 bombers from UK air base

• How bosses should address their troops

• The FT’s popular stock picking game returns

Flávio Bolsonaro is favourite to become Brazil’s next president after defying polls to take a commanding lead in the first round of voting in yesterday’s elections.

Bolsonaro, son of the jailed former far-right president Jair, is in touching distance of a remarkable family comeback after winning 47 per cent of the vote compared with 45.2 per cent for leftwing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with almost all the ballots counted. The two will contest a run-off on October 25.

The contest, which has pitted two sharply different visions of Brazil at a time of deepening political polarisation, has been closely tracked in Washington as US President Donald Trump seeks to assert greater influence over the western hemisphere.

Analysts believe that the 45-year-old senator has a much better chance of winning the run-off against the 80-year-old Lula.

“I believe Flávio is the favourite,” said Mauricio Moura, founder of pollster Instituto Ideia. “It’s clearly an election of change.”

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Bolsonaro has made security one of the main themes of his campaign and promised to work much more closely with the US if elected. He has also pledged to reduce public spending and free his father, who is serving a lengthy prison sentence for plotting a coup following a failed re-election bid against Lula four years ago.

Sunday’s first-round result was a stinging setback for Lula, a former trade unionist who governed Latin America’s largest nation between 2003 and 2010 before returning to office in 2023 after a stint in prison on graft convictions that were later overturned.

• Sánchez calls snap election: Spain’s prime minister has seized on a housing crisis to go to the country in a surprise move.

• Bosnia elections: Pro-Russia strongman Milorad Dodik has claimed victory despite recent efforts by the international community to sideline him.

Here’s what else we’re keeping tabs on today:

• Quebecers go to the polls: Voters in the French-speaking Canadian province of Quebec vote for a new government. Polls suggest the separatist Parti Québécois is favourite to win, which would return the party to power for the first time in more than a decade and create a new problem for Prime Minister Mark Carney.

• Economic data: The US Institute for Supply Management is expected to report that the country’s non-manufacturing PMI eased while S&P Global will report final readings of its Composite PMI and Services PMI covering last month for Canada and Brazil as well as the US.

• Nobel Prize: The prestigious awards kick off this week with the announcement of the winners in physiology or medicine.

Five more top stories

1. The euro fell to a 17-month low against the dollar earlier today, as a sell-off in French debt sent a shudder through Eurozone markets· already under pressure from higher oil prices. The euro has now fallen 1.2 per cent since the start of the month and is down almost 5 per cent against the US currency this year.

2. Global dealmaking fell below $1tn in the third quarter for the first time since Donald Trump unleashed his trade war last year, as high interest rates and AI anxiety threaten to derail a blockbuster year for mergers and acquisitions.

• IPO market: Wall Street initial public offerings have slowed to a trickle. FT reporters explain why.

3. The US has withdrawn B-1 bombers stationed at the UK’s Fairford air base and returned them to American soil, a US defence official confirmed yesterday. The recall comes a week after a major security alert at Fairford when five British men in their twenties were arrested near the Gloucestershire base. Reports in the US media yesterday suggested that US officials had information about a fresh threat involving an Iranian plot against the base.

4. Schneider Electric will acquire US engineering software provider PTC in a $23.7bn deal that marks the French industrial conglomerate’s biggest takeover. The deal will boost Schneider’s offering of software solutions that can aid manufacturers with designing industrial products and engineering specifications. But Schneider’s dropped more than 6 per cent on Monday·.

• More M&A news: The UK’s largest broadband provider BT has acquired smaller rival TalkTalk in a pre-pack administration deal that would result in a £400mn hit to BT’s cash position in its current financial year.

• Italian bank takeover: Monte dei Paschi di Siena’s largest shareholder has thrown its weight behind Intesa Sanpaolo’s improved €34.5bn takeover offer.

5. A spiralling legal crisis threatens to engulf OpenAI after its AI agents hacked dozens of companies and governments worldwide. Staff at OpenAI, alongside senior legal, tech and policy figures, told the FT that the company has been left open to legal damages and government actions after cyber security breaches involving its AI agents were revealed around the world.

Russia’s new drive to crush Ukraine

Damaged buildings at the Port of Odesa © Igor Ishchuk/FT

Ukraine’s drone strikes on targets in Russia early this year emboldened some of Kyiv’s allies to be cautiously optimistic about the war. Moscow responded with a ruthlessly targeted air offensive that has closed the Black Sea to shipping, blocking Ukrainian agricultural exports. Beyond severing an economic lifeline for Ukraine, the brutal offensive is linked to a broader campaign to crush Ukraine. Foreign editor Alec Russell reports from the southern Ukrainian port city of Odesa.

We’re also reading . . .

• US economy: For many Americans, this feels like the wrong kind of economic boom, argues Ruchir Sharma, while Rana Foroohar says America is beginning to look like Italy.

• Management: Pilita Clark gives some advice to bosses on how they should address the troops.

• Wrexham AFC: The chief executive of one of the world’s oldest professional football clubs talks about how its turnaround has become a fairytale success story.

• Polymarket: In a private group chat, an elite crew of prediction-market bettors turn elections, wars and disasters into “free money on the floor”.

Chart of the day

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Take a break from the news . . . 

Figures released by the US government on Friday showed the economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, raising doubts over the resilience of the labour market and the outlook for interest rate rises. Hiring decelerated across multiple sectors, with healthcare, a big driver of job gains in previous months, slowing sharply. Employment in the financial sector continued to contract.

Take a break from the news . . . 

The FT’s popular stock picking game returns today. Nearly 13,000 players signed up to play the first season of the game, which started in June and ran for nine weeks over the summer. FT subscribers can register for season two now by going to stockpickinggame.ft.com and compete for the £1,000 prize.

You can also listen to today’s top news stories in the FT News Briefing podcast.