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Good morning and welcome to FirstFT. In today’s newsletter:
US threat to block arms supply for Ukraine
The EU and China agree quota on Chinese hybrid car imports
Wall Street banks set to report their worst quarterly trading results
An exhibition exploring humanity’s relationship with the night sky
Donald Trump’s administration is threatening to stop the procurement system that provides Ukraine with weapons in order to press Kyiv to halt its deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, according to officials in Europe.
The officials, who received calls from US officials at the weekend or were briefed on them, said Washington was lobbying European capitals and Kyiv in an attempt to end the attacks on Russian oil refineries. The White House declined to confirm or comment on the calls.
The officials said the US message included threats to cut off intelligence sharing and Purl — the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List mechanism for procuring US weapons for Ukraine. Purl is a Nato-managed initiative through which Kyiv’s allies purchase US-made weapons that are then supplied to Ukraine. The US does not make a financial contribution to the fund.
One person who said he was contacted by US officials was Pavlo Palisa, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s military adviser. Read the exclusive story·.
Sabotage threat: Nato members should prepare a robust response· for a possible deadly Russian “hybrid” attack, Poland’s foreign minister has said.
Diesel deal: Trump’s agreement with Moscow to release Russian fuel· to global markets is unlikely to offer meaningful relief to buyers in the US or elsewhere in the world, according to analysts. The pact has angered· members of his party, who joined with Democrats in claiming that it was against the law.
Here’s what else we’re keeping tabs on today:
Ethiopia: Addis Ababa hosts the 65th session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, running until Friday.
France: The week-long Paris Motor Show begins.
Economic data: The EU publishes long-term interest rate statistics.
Results: AEP Plantations and LVMH report earnings.
Nobel Prize: The winner of the award for economics will be announced in Oslo.
Who’s doing better in their trade battles with China — the EU or the US? Senior trade writer Alan Beattie and economics columnist Soumaya Keynes will answer reader questions in a live Q&A on October 15 at 1pm BST. Submit a question here.
Five more top stories
1. Brussels and Beijing have agreed a quota on Chinese hybrid car imports as part of an “understanding” achieved by the two sides that averted a full-scale trade conflict. The EU would deploy a “safeguard”· approved by member states, which can be applied without evidence of market abuse and would mean China could export a limited number of vehicles before steep new supplementary tariffs kick in.
Volkswagen plea: The carmaker’s chief executive has called for greater French and German co-operation· to strengthen European competitiveness, saying it was not too late to respond to the threat posed by Chinese rivals.
2. Wall Street banks are set to report their worst trading results of the year next week, raising concerns of an end to a record streak. Analysts project the five largest US investment banks will collectively report about $38bn in third-quarter equities and fixed income trading revenues, down sharply· from the second quarter’s record $47bn.
3. UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham will step up engagement with business this week, hosting a speed dating-style reception with executives fearful of tax rises in the Budget and keen to know more about his plans for the economy·. The event will follow a breakfast roundtable with retail and hospitality leaders hosted by chancellor John Healey at Number 11.
‘Do-nothing Budget’ warning: The chancellor risks losing bond investors’ confidence if he fails to explain how he will fill a £35bn hole in the government’s spending plans, said the Institute for Fiscal Studies·.
Non-compete clauses: Hedge funds and banks have hit out at Burnham’s plan to end their use in employment contracts, warning the proposal could disadvantage UK firms·.
4. Exclusive: TAV Airports, a subsidiary of French state-controlled Groupe ADP, has received fees from Russian and Iranian airlines under US and EU sanctions, highlighting the limits of western blacklists targeting Moscow and Tehran. The airport operator continues to service· Russia’s Ural Airlines at Turkey’s Antalya airport through a joint venture with Germany’s Fraport.
Heathrow: The UK airport’s boss has warned its investors will reassess plans to build a third runway· if Burnham does not openly back the £33bn project by the end of this year.
5. The US military struck a commercial ship in the Gulf of Oman it said had tried to pierce its Gulf naval blockade, in its first attack near Iran in more than a month. US Central Command said a precision munition struck the Panama-flagged Ocean Molica and disabled the vessel’s propulsion· after the ship’s crew ignored warnings, but the crew was unharmed.
World Petroleum Council: Several international oil executives cancelled plans to attend· an annual energy conference in Riyadh this week after a Houthi missile attack on the Saudi capital’s airport on Saturday killed 12 and injured more than 300.
Trump battles for the Senate
A decade after Trump exploded on to the US political scene, voters in the Republican heartlands are now expressing disappointment with the president, while some of the party’s candidates seek to distance themselves from him. Close races have sprung up in deeply conservative states, turning the battle for the Senate into a political brawl that could tip either way·.
We’re also reading . . .
CVC: The Dutch private equity firm sought to keep quiet an investment in an Israeli defence company because of concerns it would attract controversy·.
Manchester City: As the Abu Dhabi-owned club awaits sanctions, the UK government is trying to limit the damage· to bilateral relations from the cheating scandal.
ITV: Dame Carolyn McCall says running the UK broadcaster, whose share price has sunk by more than half since she took over, is “probably” her toughest ever role·.
Chart of the day
Major economies are defying the Middle East energy shock as surging AI spending helps sustain growth, according to research for the FT·, but “worrying omens” lurk behind the surprisingly robust GDP indicators.
Take a break from the news . . .
An exhibition which opens at London’s Warburg Institute this month investigates the human impulse to chart constellations and find meaning in the darkness.
You can also listen to today’s top news stories in the FT News Briefing podcast·.
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